FOREX-Euro edges up marginally on steady German business morale in October

Published 25/10/2019, 11:30
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro edges up marginally on steady German business morale in October
DXY
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* German Ifo business survey unchanged in October

* Ifo chief economist sees small expansion in Germany

* ECB survey, comments defend recent central bank policy

easing

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Recasts, adds new context and news, updates prices)

By Olga Cotaga

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The euro was up slightly Friday

after a survey revealed German business morale held steady in

October, though levels were not far from the one-week low it

fell to Thursday on the European Central Bank leaving the door

open for more policy easing.

Germany, Europe's largest economy, is stabilising after

contracting earlier in the year, a survey conducted by

Germany's Ifo institute showed on Friday. Its chief economist also forecast that the German economy

was likely to expand slightly in the fourth quarter.

On the other hand, euro zone inflation and growth

expectations have continued to fall, a key ECB survey showed on

Friday, providing further justification for its latest stimulus

package. Moreover, Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said on

Friday that a recent string of dismal economic indicators

justified the ECB's move last month to provide more stimulus.

The ECB cut the key interest rate to -0.50% and announced a

new wave of bond purchases in September. But outgoing President

Mario Draghi highlighted the importance of accomodative fiscal

policy in the euro area, which together with ECB's quantitative

easing programme should have a much stronger impact on the euro

zone's potential recovery.

Other ECB members have mirrored that view.

ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle said on Friday

that euro zone countries should introduce structural and fiscal

measures that would improve their growth potential. IN FOCUS

The focus will shift next week to a U.S. Federal Reserve

meeting ending Oct. 30 and a Bank of Japan meeting ending Oct.

31. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for a third time

this year, but money markets have largely priced in a 25 basis

points cut already, according to Refinitiv data.

"It should be a done deal," said Richard Falkenhall, senior

currency strategist at SEB.

Therefore, the central bank meetings next week are "not

going to move markets very much," Falkenhall said. "I don't

think it will have a major impact on euro/dollar," he added.

The BOJ is leaning towards keeping policy on hold next week,

but the decision is a close call as policymakers struggle with

the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war. The euro, together with other major currencies, looks

destined to remain in a narrow trading range in the near future,

keeping volatility down, the only trend in the otherwise

trendless forex market, analysts said.

The common currency rose 0.1% to $1.1119 EUR=EBS , though

was not far from the one-week low of $1.1094 it reached on

Thursday. The index which tracks the dollar against six major

currencies .DXY was flat at 97.63.

The Swedish crown too was in neutral territory, last trading

at 10.72 against the euro EURSEK=D3 . On Thursday, however, the

Swedish currency jumped to a one-month high after the Riksbank

cemented hopes of an interest rate increase to 0% in December.

Still, the Riksbank, which apart from the Norges Bank, is

the only central bank in the developed world raising interest

rates, did not forecast another rate rise after December.

"It seems like things are getting really really boring in

the FX markets," said Falkenhall. "The FX market will be a

zombie market."

Traders will be watching next the U.S. University of

Michigan consumer sentiment index, due at 1400 GMT. Economists

polled by Reuters expect the index to remain steady at 96 in

October.

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