FOREX-Euro rises as dollar weakens on questions about more Fed rate cuts

Published 31/10/2019, 10:11
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro rises as dollar weakens on questions about more Fed rate cuts
DXY
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* Fed cuts rate by 25 bps, as expected

* Dollar weaker across board as a result

* Chile's backs out as APEC host, hindering U.S.-China deal

* Chinese remnibi rallies nonetheless, tracking risk

appetite

* Euro zone GDP and inflation data due, considered euro

negative

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Olga Cotaga

LONDON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The euro gained on Thursday as

the dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut

interest rates for the third time this year and left open the

question of whether it would cut them further.

The dollar was falling against most currencies, particularly

the Chinese offshore yuan, which rose to an 11-week high.

The Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a

target range of 1.50% to 1.75%. But it dropped a reference in

its policy statement that it would "act as appropriate" to

sustain economic expansion - language considered a sign of

future cuts. Still, lack of an explicit signal the Fed was done with

easing for now was taken as less hawkish than expected, helping

to drive the dollar down.

"The new, slightly shorter, statement tries to keep their

options open and puts them back into a data-dependent mode, but

circumstances could mean that they have less optionality than

they think," said Tim Foster, portfolio manager at Fidelity

International in London.

The euro was up 0.1% at $1.1161, after earlier reaching a

10-day high of $1.11705 EUR=EBS .

It might fall later, though. Reports later on Thursday are

expected to show the euro zone's gross domestic product growth

slowed and its inflation rate fell in the third quarter.

The flash HICP inflation data was expected to fall to 0.7%

in October from 0.8% in September, according to a Reuters poll.

Preliminary third-quarter GDP growth was forecast at 1.1%

year-on-year, compared with 1.2% in the second quarter.

"European data won't provide many reasons to be cheerful

about the euro," ING analysts said in a note.

The dollar index .DXY rose on Wednesday to its highest

since Oct. 17 as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke about the

central bank's decision. But it slipped 0.4% on Thursday to

97.29, its lowest in a week.

The dollar also fell against the safe-haven Japanese yen

JPY=EBS , by 0.2% to 108.62 yen. It earlier reached a six-day

low of 108.54.

The yen gained after Chile withdrew as host of an APEC

summit in November, where the United States and China had been

expected to take major steps toward ending a 15-month-old trade

war. Traders still think the world's two biggest economies will

arrive at a trade truce. China's Foreign Ministry said on

Thursday Chinese and U.S. heads of state have been maintaining

contact. The Chinese yuan rallied to its highest in 11 weeks against

the dollar. The offshore yuan last traded hands at 7.0345 per

dollar, up 0.1% CNH=EBS .

"Because of this sort of lull in U.S.-China trade war,

you're starting to see investors getting their toes wet in EM

assets," said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO

Capital Markets. "People are hopeful of a year-end Santa Claus

rally ... they're hopeful we can get a trade deal."

The Chinese currency was tracking the resurgent risk

appetite in emerging markets, instead of leading it, Gallo said.

"I really can't think of a bullish China story for now."

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