FOREX-Euro stays buoyed before ECB meeting as Fed forecast knocks dollar

Published 12/12/2019, 13:15
Updated 12/12/2019, 13:18
© Reuters.  FOREX-Euro stays buoyed before ECB meeting as Fed forecast knocks dollar
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* Euro at more than five-week high before ECB meeting

* Dollars bulls cut positions after Fed rate signal

* Sterling riding high as voting gets underway

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Adds new quote, updates prices)

By Tommy Wilkes and Olga Cotaga

LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The euro stood near five-week

highs on Thursday before new European Central Bank President

Christine Lagarde's first policy meeting, after the Federal

Reserve's forecast that it would keep rates on hold through

2020.

The Fed announcement late on Wednesday, which followed its

decision to leave rates unchanged, sent the dollar to its

weakest since early August.

Traders will scrutinise Lagarde's words for her take on the

ECB's latest stimulus plans, introduced in September, and the

bank's economic forecasts. But analysts doubt the ECB meeting

will dislodge the euro from the narrow trading range it's been

in through 2019.

"Markets will be trying to get a feel for her style, but

most of the substance will be around reforming the strategy and

policy framework for the ECB," said Stephen Gallo, European head

of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets, adding that "the bias is

towards monetary policy easing."

The euro was little changed at $1.1136 EUR=EBS in European

trade, not far from Wednesday's high of $1.1145, the strongest

since early November.

The currency's strength came from traders unwinding their

long positions on the dollar, as well as from Brexit optimism,

said Gallo, adding that he expected this to continue.

"I wouldn't be rushing to sell EUR/USD right now," he said.

The dollar was neutral against a basket of currencies,

having fallen earlier to a four-month low of 97.038 .DXY .

Investors were also on edge ahead of Sunday's deadline for a

new round of U.S. tariffs on China to take effect.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the economic outlook for the

U.S. was favourable, though the Fed forecasts only moderate and

slowing growth through 2020 and 2021. New economic

projections showed 13 of 17 Fed policymakers foresaw no change

in interest rates until at least 2021.

"The Fed is sending a signal of 'Not too hot, not too

cold'," Gallo said.

The Japanese yen held on to most of its overnight gains at

108.64 JPY=EBS .

Among those benefiting from the U.S. dollar's slide were the

Australian AUD=D3 , New Zealand NZD=D3 and Hong Kong dollars

HKD=D3 - the latter rose to its highest since July - as well

as some emerging-market currencies.

The Swiss franc on Thursday also rose to its highest against

the dollar since early September CHF=EBS . The Swiss National

Bank on Thursday kept its negative interest rate on hold as

expected, and the franc was little moved against the euro

EURCHF=EBS . Sterling rose to its highest since March at $1.3229

GBP=D3 , amid dollar weakness and confidence Britain's

Conservative Party will win a majority in Thursday's election.

A majority would give Prime Minister Boris Johnson's party

control of parliament and enable him to lead Britain out of the

European Union at the end of January. Anything short of that

could prompt a slide in the British currency.

Sterling/dollar overnight implied volatility has soared to

its highest since the 2016 Brexit referendum GBPONO= .

Voting ends at 2200 GMT, with exit polls and early results

due after that. Traders expect an outcome as early as 0300 GMT

on Friday.

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