FOREX-Major currencies mark time as investors brace for key risk events

Published 10/12/2019, 06:07
Updated 10/12/2019, 06:09
© Reuters.  FOREX-Major currencies mark time as investors brace for key risk events
USD/JPY
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* Investors mildly positive ahead of risk-filled few days

* Kiwi rallies; dollar steady vs yen

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The dollar and yen mostly held

the safe-haven high ground on Tuesday, with investors wary of a

looming deadline for U.S. tariffs on China, the British election

and upcoming Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings.

Front of mind is whether Washington will go ahead with a

fresh round of tariffs on Sunday, or whether a deal with China

can be reached before then.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Friday

that the Dec. 15 deadline is still in place, but Agriculture

Secretary Sonny Perdue on Monday raised the possibility the

tariffs are not imposed. "There's risks both ways," said Westpac FX analyst Imre

Speizer.

"Trade's still the flip-floppy factor, but I think markets

are still reasonably upbeat about risk-seeking. All these little

movements are only smoke and noise, and don't really tell you

what's going on. Cautiously positive would be the overall mood."

Soaring inflation in China, ahead even of lofty

expectations, had little effect on a market waiting for trade

news. Against the Japanese yen JPY= , the greenback found support

after last week's declines, steadying at 108.62 yen. The dollar

dipped slightly against the euro to $1.1066 and was steady

against a basket of currencies at 97.623.

The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 rallied as bears trimmed

short bets following a slew of recent upbeat economic data,

rising 0.2% to $0.6560 and dragging the Australian dollar higher

with it to $0.6828 AUD=D3 .

The U.S. dollar's recovery after weakness last week has been

supported by a surge in hiring in November.

That has investors almost certain that the U.S. Federal

Reserve will hold rates steady when their two-day meeting

concludes on Wednesday, increasing investors' focus on the

outlook and on finding a trade-war truce. FEDWATCH

China said on Monday it hoped to make a trade deal with the

United States as soon as possible, though gave no new details or

insight into the progress of the talks.

"We expect regional currencies to stay moribund as we await

news on the trade front," said OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley.

Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is likewise expected to

keep interest rates steady, while the pound's fate is in the

hands of voters at Thursday's British election. ECBWATCH

Sterling GBP=D3 nudged higher to $1.3150, just below a

seven-month high hit last week, as polls pointed to a

Conservative victory decisive enough to secure a parliamentary

majority.

Growth data due at 0930 GMT, followed by a YouGov poll due

at 2200 GMT will offer the latest updates on economics and

politics.

"If the UK bookies' prices are a reasonable guide to market

expectations for Thursday's election, it is hard to see much

more upside for GBP on the outcome," said Adam Cole, chief

currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

"Despite the confidence with which markets predict a

Conservative victory, there are still several major

uncertainties," he added, pointing to unpredictable turnout and

polling showing a sizeable chunk of undecided voters.

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