FOREX-New Zealand dollar set for biggest jump this year on cbank surprise

Published 13/11/2019, 09:54
© Reuters.  FOREX-New Zealand dollar set for biggest jump this year on cbank surprise
DXY
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* New Zealand c. bank holds rates steady, wrongfoots

investors

* Hedge funds had built up massive short bets against the

dollar

* Dollar firms on risk-off sentiment; Powell testimony eyed

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

LONDON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The New Zealand dollar provided

the standout performance in otherwise unremarkable currency

markets on Wednesday as it stood set to notch its biggest daily

gain in a year after the central bank stunned investors by

keeping interest rates on hold.

Hedge funds and banks had built up massive short positions

in the kiwi NZD=D3 as the local dollar is known before the

rate decision on bets that a protracted trade war between

Washington and Beijing would hurt the export-oriented economy's

prospects.

But after two rate cuts this year, the Reserve Bank of New

Zealand said it saw no urgency to ease policy again, sending the

dollar up by more than 1% and short-dated bond yields and swap

rates surging higher. "Like much of the market, we had expected an RBNZ cut

today," UBS strategists said in a daily note.

"Signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks have soothed

global markets and policymakers alike," they said expecting the

local dollar to strengthen to $0.63 by end-2019.

Against a broadly firm greenback, the kiwi was up 1.3% at

$0.6407, comfortably on track for its biggest daily jump since

end-October 2018.

Almost all analysts had forecast a cut in the 1% benchmark

rate to a record-low 0.75%. Futures markets had priced in a

better-than-75% chance of a cut as slack spending and a global

slowdown held New Zealand's economic growth at a six-year low.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar remained broadly firm against a

basket of its rivals .DXY as weak risk appetite, partly due to

the intensifying unrest in Hong Kong, raised the greenback's

safe haven appeal.

It edged 0.1% higher at 98.41, holding just below a

one-month high of 98.423 hit in the previous session, with

market focus turning towards a two-day testimony by U.S. Federal

Reserve chief Jerome Powell later in the day.

The British pound GBP=D3 remained broadly steady around

the $1.2840 line as latest opinion polls forecast a lead for the

ruling Conservative Party.

NZ dollar https://tmsnrt.rs/33KFCIO

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