FOREX-Safe-haven yen takes a hit as hopes for China stimulus grow

Published 20/02/2020, 01:35
© Reuters.  FOREX-Safe-haven yen takes a hit as hopes for China stimulus grow

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

* Tracking the coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7

* Yen tumbles as risk sentiment shifts

* Traders focus on China policy response to virus

* Pound looks ahead to retail sales data

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The Japanese yen traded near a

nine-month low versus the dollar on Thursday as risk appetite

improved on expectations that China will continue to take steps

to offset the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

The Chinese yuan held steady against the dollar in offshore

trade before a widely expected cut in the country's benchmark

loan prime rate later on Thursday. The yen was initially bought as a safe-haven asset when the

outbreak of the virus in the central Chinese province of Hubei

roiled financial markets last month.

However, yen buying is starting to fade as growth in the

number of new cases of the virus in mainland China starts to

slow. Signs that Chinese officials are ready to take more

drastic measures to support companies hit by the virus is

another factor that has reduced demand for safe-haven

investments.

"The yen's fall was so sudden that it could bounce back

slightly in the very short term," said Yukio Ishizuki, foreign

exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

"However, sentiment is leaning away from risk-off because

China will pull out all the stops to support its economy."

The yen JPY=EBS traded at 111.27 per dollar in Asia on

Thursday, close to the lowest since May 2019.

Japan's currency tumbled 1.3% on Wednesday, its biggest

daily decline since August, after triggering stop loss orders

following the expiry of options that had kept the yen in a

narrow range versus the dollar, according to Ishizuki.

In the offshore market, the yuan CNH=D3 was little changed

at 7.0100 per dollar as traders awaited additional policy

stimulus from Chinese officials.

The People's Bank of China is expected to cut its benchmark

rate on Thursday, which would follow a cut the interest rate on

its medium-term lending on Monday.

China's manufacturing sector is gradually coming back on

line after the outbreak of the virus led to temporary factory

closures and severe travel restrictions, but many companies and

households are likely to struggle due to income lost because of

the illness.

China reported on Thursday a drop in new cases of the

flu-like virus, and while many investors are sceptical of

China's reporting methodology, the data has helped risk appetite

improve in the currency market. The Swiss franc CHF=EBS , another safe-haven, was quoted at

0.9841 versus the dollar, close to its weakest since December.

Many traders say they remain cautious because the previously

unknown virus has resulted in more than 2,000 deaths in China

and spread to 24 other countries.

The euro EUR=EBS traded at $1.0810, close to its lowest

since April 2017. The common currency managed to stabilise in

Asian trading, but sentiment remains weak after disappointing

economic data sent it crashing through closely-watched support

levels.

The pound GBP=D3 was quoted at $1.2924 before data later

on Thursday that is forecast to show growth in British retail

sales. Sterling fell 0.6% on Wednesday as market sentiment is

caught between optimism about the economy and pessimism about

Britain's talks with the European Union for a free trade deal.

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