FOREX-Shaky yen looks to BOJ, euro pauses before ECB review

Published 21/01/2020, 01:55
© Reuters.  FOREX-Shaky yen looks to BOJ, euro pauses before ECB review

* Currencies on hold as risks to global growth recede

* Risk-on mood supports dollar/yen

* Traders await more details from BOJ, ECB on policy tone

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Jan 21 (Reuters) - The yen traded near an eight-month

low versus the dollar on Tuesday, while the euro held steady as

investors awaited meetings of the Bank of Japan and European

Central Bank amid a slightly improving backdrop for global

growth.

The BOJ is first off the block with its two-day meeting

ending later in the day. The central bank is expected to keep

policy on hold, with traders focusing on comments from governor

Haruhiko Kuroda to gauge the rates and economic outlook after

the conclusion of a preliminary U.S.-China trade deal last week.

The euro was locked in a narrow range before a European

Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday where it is expected to

launch a comprehensive review of central bank strategy,

including the ECB's inflation target.

Trading in key currencies is likely to be subdued as

investors try to assess how major central banks will respond to

receding risks to the global economic outlook.

"The International Monetary Fund has revised up Japan's

economic forecasts due to government stimulus, and dollar/yen is

likely to edge higher as equity markets show risk-on trades,"

said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho

Securities in Tokyo.

"The euro zone economy has bottomed out, but the ECB is

waiting for signs that the economy is picking up, so a recovery

in the euro is likely to be delayed."

The yen JPY=EBS was little changed at 110.17 per dollar on

Tuesday, close to its lowest since May 2019.

Against the dollar, the euro EUR=EBS traded at $1.1096.

The common currency was also quoted at EURGBP=D3 85.34 pence.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies

stood at 97.606, near the highest level in a month.

At the two-day rate review that ends on Tuesday, the BOJ is

set to keep its short-term interest rate target at minus 0.1%

and a pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around

zero. The BOJ is also set to nudge up its growth forecasts as

improved macroeconomic indicators take some pressure off the

central bank for more stimulus, but traders will scrutinise

Kuroda's remarks after the policy decision.

The ECB's first meeting of the year is most likely to launch

a rethink of an inflation goal the bank has failed to meet since

2013.

The scope and scale of the review will be a key focus for

markets given the far-reaching implications for monetary policy.

A slightly brighter tone to data means the ECB's assessment

of the economic outlook will also be watched closely by

investors on Thursday.

Elsewhere in currencies, the Australian dollar AUD=D3 was

little changed at $0.6876 before labour market data on Thursday

that could help determine whether the Reserver Bank of Australia

lowers rates at a meeting on Feb. 4.

The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 was also steady at $0.6609

as traders braced for the release of consumer price data on

Friday.

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