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FOREX-Yuan falls to 11-year low on trade war, yen pares early gains

Published 26/08/2019, 03:55
© Reuters.  FOREX-Yuan falls to 11-year low on trade war, yen pares early gains
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Markets rattled by escalation in U.S.-China trade war

* Yen, Swiss franc and gold rise on risk aversion

* Traders braced for spike in volatility

(Adds onshore yuan, updates prices)

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Aug 26 (Reuters) - China's yuan hit an 11-year low in

onshore trade and tumbled to a record low in offshore trade

after a sharp re-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war whacked

investor confidence and darkened the global economic outlook.

The yen JPY= , often bought in times of uncertainty as a

safe haven, pared early gains versus the dollar due to Japanese

importers' selling, but remained firmer against other currencies

in a sign of waning risk appetites.

Gold prices leapt higher and benchmark Treasury yields hit

their lowest since July 2016 as investors fled to safer assets.

Financial markets could be in for a rough ride in the near

future if investors continue to shift money from stocks to less

risky assets, such as debt, gold and safe-haven currencies.

"China's economy is slowing, so the yuan will only fall

further unless authorities take steps to stop it," said Takuya

Kanda, general manager of the research department at Gaitame.com

Research Institute in Tokyo.

"Some dollar buying from Japanese importers pulled

dollar/yen off its lows, but excluding such real demand there's

no reason to buy the dollar. The yen will continue to rise."

In China's onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS fell to

7.1500 per dollar, the lowest since February 2008. In the

offshore market, the yuan CNH=D3 slid to 7.1850 yuan, the

weakest since international trading in the currency began in

2010.

Spot gold XAU= rose 1.2% to $1,548.93 per ounce,

approaching the highest since April 2013.

U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday when President Donald Trump

announced an additional 5% duty on $550 billion in targeted

Chinese goods, hours after Beijing unveiled retaliatory tariffs

on $75 billion worth of U.S. products. At the G7 meeting in France over the weekend, Trump caused

some confusion by indicating he may have had second thoughts on

the tariffs.

The White House on Sunday clarified these comments, saying

Trump wished he had raised tariffs on Chinese goods even higher

last week, even as he signalled he did not plan to follow

through with his demand that U.S. close Chinese operations.

In Asian trading, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield

US10YT=RR fell below 1.475% to reach their lowest in more than

three years. Yields on 2-year debt fell to 1.465%.

Earlier this month the yield curve inverted for the first

time in more than a decade when long-term yields traded below

short-term yields, which is commonly considered a signal of an

economic recession. Investors will watch to see if the yield

curve inverts again.

The yen surged early in Asian trading to 104.46 per dollar,

the highest since a flash crash this January, but then pared

gains to be only a tad higher at 105.26.

"Speculators came into the market very early to put heavy

pressure on dollar/yen," said Yukio Ishizuki, foreign exchange

strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

"The fact that the offshore yuan is down this much shows

speculators have gotten a little wild. The trade war is driving

all these moves, and I don't see this ending anytime soon."

The yen will next target 104.10 per dollar, which is the

high it reached during a flash crash on Jan. 3 that roiled

financial markets, Daiwa Securities' Ishizuki said.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 , a liquid proxy for risk, was

down 0.3% to $0.6736 at 0242 GMT. An earlier level of $0.6690

was within a whisker of a recent decade-low of $0.66775.

The New Zealand dollar NZD=D4 slipped to $0.6342, a level

not seen since September 2015.

Against the yen, the Aussie briefly fell to 69.97 yen

AUDJPY= , the lowest since April 2009, before paring losses.

The kiwi skidded to 66.32 yen NZDJPY= , the lowest since

November 2012.

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