* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=ZAGDPQP
South Africa poll data
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=NGGDPAP
Nigeria poll data
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=KEGDPAP
Kenya poll data
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=GHGDPAP
Ghana poll data
By Vuyani Ndaba
JOHANNESBURG, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Sub-Saharan Africa's
economy will accelerate going into next year but could be
derailed as the world moves onto an uncertain path that could
bring an end to the recent synchronised uptrend, a Reuters poll
showed on Monday.
Economists' views differ starkly about where exactly in the
cycle the global economy is and some reckon it is already in a
downturn. Africa's trading partners are a mixed bag, the U.S has
reached almost full employment but Europe is struggling and
China is mired in a trade war.
Highlighting the uncertainty, the spread between forecasts
was huge. The most pessimistic forecaster for the sub-Saharan
Africa region expected growth to slow to 1.3% next year while
the most bullish said it would expand 3.5%.
Aly-Khan Satchu, CEO of Rich Management in Nairobi, said the
continent's biggest economies would likely grow softly due to
lower Chinese demand for the region's exports, a consequence of
the world's second biggest economy being involved in a trade
Still, the survey median showed economists expect growth
next year of 3.1%, in line with a World Bank projection. In 2019
it is estimated to grow 2.5-3.0%.
Nigeria - which clubbed together with South Africa makes
around half of sub-Sahara's regional gross domestic product - is
expected to grow 2.1% this year and 2.5% next, much slower than
predicted in the previous survey. South Africa is expected to
grow 0.6% in 2019 and 1.2% in 2020, almost in line with last
month's consensus.
"South Africa, Angola and Nigeria - will remain a drag on
the overall SSA GDP performance during 2019," said Thea Fourie,
senior economist at IHS Markit.
Kenya, East Africa's biggest economy, is expected to grow
5.7% this year and stretch that by 0.1 percentage point next
year while Ghana will probably hit 6.2% this year and 6.0% next
year, both better than the continent's biggest economies.
Nigeria is currently experiencing a sustained period of
"stagflation", characterised by slow economic growth and high
inflation and while the poll expects price pressures will ease
over the next two years the inflation rate will remain in double
digits.
Nigerian inflation is expected to average 11.3% this year,
slowing 0.2 percentage points next year and to 10.8% in 2021.
Financial Derivatives Company's (FDC) research team in Lagos
said the Central Bank of Nigeria seems to be leaning towards a
combination of options that will keep interest rates high until
inflation falls below the upper limit of its 6-9% target.
"However, this looks most unlikely if you consider the full
implications of the border closure on prices," FDC wrote in
note.
Nigeria has partially closed its western border with Benin
to curb rice smuggling that is threatening the country's attempt
to boost local production. It wants to be self-sufficient in
rice but import controls have kept prices high and led to
smuggling from Benin into Nigeria. other stories from the Reuters global long-term
economic outlook polls package see