POLL-Sub-Saharan Africa's economy to rebound this year as activity picks up

* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=NGGDPAP
Nigeria economic forecasts
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Kenya economic forecasts
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Ghana economic forecasts
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=ZAGDPQP
GDP forecasts

By Vuyani Ndaba
JOHANNESBURG, April 16 (Reuters) - Sub-Saharan Africa is
expected to rebound this year as the continent's economic
drivers pick up momentum after activity was halted by the
coronavirus pandemic, despite a slower pace of vaccinations
compared with the rich world, a Reuters poll found.
Medians in a Reuters poll taken in the past week showed
sub-Saharan Africa was expected to recover in 2021, growing 3.3%
after contracting nearly 2% last year.
The International Monetary Fund forecast growth for the
region at 3.4% this year from an estimated contraction of 1.9%.
Rafiq Raji, associate with the Africa programme at the
Centre for Strategic and International Studies, expects a
recovery as economies ease restrictions and activity in crucial
sectors such agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism picks up.
However, "slow vaccine rollouts and rising COVID-19 cases
are expected to weigh on the recovery", said Raji.
The World Health Organization's Africa office said on April
8 that Africa had given fewer than 2% of vaccinations
administered globally.
Growth was expected this year from all the major economies
with Angola at 1.6%, Ghana at 4.9%, Kenya at 5.1%, 2.0% for
Nigeria, South Africa at 3.7% and 2.0% for Zambia.
South Africa, the continent's most industrialised economy,
together with Angola and Nigeria contribute around 50% to
sub-Saharan Africa's economic engine. Much healthier commodity
prices are likely to buoy growth there, economists said.
Still, economists warned some growth rates were calculated
from a very low base and might not be sustainable in the
following two years, particularly in South Africa where growth
is expected to slow to 2.1% and maintain that pace.
Thanks to a diversified continent, growth for the
sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) is likely to stick to 3.3%
percent next year and grow 4.1% the following year.
"SSA inflation expectations are expected to remain high in
2021, owing to increased spending, higher commodity prices and
country-specific factors. Still, the average SSA inflation rate
is expected to moderate to about 10% in 2021, from about 11% in
2020," said Raji.
Inflation in South Africa is likely to moderate, seen just
below the midpoint of the central bank's 3%-6% comfort level
this year - and the following two years - despite risks skewed
more to the upside over the coming year.
"Most of the upside risks to the inflation outlook in South
Africa stem from exogenous forces - in particular fuel prices,"
said Jeffrey Schultz, economist at BNP Paribas.
The South African rand ZAR=D3 has been resilient in past
months, helping to keep interest rates stable.
Economists expected security challenges in Nigeria --
Africa's biggest economy -- to likely continue to make food
expensive, owing to slowed agricultural activity and logistical
issues.
Hard currency shortages and monetary financing also pose
significant risks to the Nigerian inflation outlook.
(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll