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FOREX-Dollar firm on strong U.S. data, outlook hopes hoist yuan to 6-month high

Published 20/01/2020, 06:42
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar firm on strong U.S. data, outlook hopes hoist yuan to 6-month high
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* U.S. economic data supports dollar

* China outlook optimism buoys Asian currencies

* Aussie, pound on edge ahead of possible monetary easing

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The dollar began the week on a

firm note on Monday as economic data pointed to strength right

across the U.S. economy, while optimism on the outlook for China

supported Asian currencies.

The greenback held steady near a one-week high against the

euro EUR= , at $1.1095, and just below an eight-month peak on

the Japanese yen, at 110.17 yen per dollar JPY= . Against a

basket of currencies it was flat .DXY .

China's yuan edged 0.2% higher to a fresh six-month top,

while the Australian and New Zealand dollars also edged ahead.

Moves were slight and volumes thin as Chinese New Year

approaches in Asia and with U.S markets closed for Martin Luther

King day on Monday.

Figures on Friday showed U.S. homebuilding surged to a

13-year high in December, with retail sales also on the rise and

a gauge of manufacturing activity rebounding to its highest in

eight months. Futures pricing suggests nobody thinks the U.S. Federal

Reserve will cut rates when it meets at the end of the month.

FEDWATCH

The strength in the United States comes as European economic

data points in the opposite direction, though with possible

signs of bottoming out both there and in China.

"We're seeing consistently strong data, still, from the

United States, and that's on the back of a boost that it will

probably get from this U.S.-China trade agreement," said Jeffrey

Halley, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at broker OANDA.

"I think the U.S. dollar will continue to outperform against

the major currencies," he said, adding he counted the chance of

a Fed rate cut soon at zero. "I think the bar for a rate cut is

quite high at the moment."

China on Friday posted its slowest annual growth figure in

almost 30 years, although December data showed revived business

confidence and quickening factory output.

That helped the yuan to a six-month high of 6.8457 per

dollar CNY= after the country's benchmark lending rate was

held steady on Monday, leading gains across Asia.

The Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand dollars NZD=D3

rose about 0.2%, with emerging markets currencies also nudging

ahead. EMRG/FRX AUD/

"They are catching a big tailwind from this trade deal,"

said Halley. "It does imply better times ahead on the resource

side and that's why we're seeing some strength in the Aussie."

However caution remained as investors look to Australian

jobs data due on Thursday for a crucial clue to the next move

for Australian interest rates.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets next month with

widespread bushfires, and their depressing effect on already

weak consumer sentiment, adding to the case for further stimulus

following three rate cuts last year.

Futures are pricing a 46% chance of a rate cut when the RBA

meets on Feb. 4, but that will likely shift higher if Thursday's

read on unemployment puts it higher than market expectations of

5.2%. 0#YIB

Similarly, the British pound GBP= sat at a week-low of

$1.3000, with markets apprehensive that the Bank of England may

cut rates at the month's end - especially if business surveys

this week seem sour. BOEWATCH

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