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FOREX-Dollar gains as U.S. data make more Fed rate cuts unlikely

Published 18/12/2019, 17:03
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar gains as U.S. data make more Fed rate cuts unlikely
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(New throughout; changes dateline, previous LONDON)

By Kate Duguid

NEW YORK, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose on

Wednesday as strong economic data decreased the chances the

Federal Reserve would continue its rate-cutting cycle in 2020.

Industrial production rebounded in the United States in

November, mainly because a strike by General Motors Co GM.N

workers ended. Housing starts and building permits were both

reported to have grown more than expected and October JOLTS job

openings were better than forecast, suggesting that the U.S.

labor market remains strong.

Expectations the Fed will cut rates from the current 150-175

basis point level are 2.2% for the January meeting, 4.3% for

March and 12% for April, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The same tool shows a 50% chance that rates will remain at

current levels through December 2020.

"Bottom line: the U.S. economy remains on solid footing even

as the rest of the world struggles," wrote analysts at Brown

Brothers Harriman.

The dollar rose against the euro EUR= by 0.23% to $1.112.

The single currency has struggled to stay above its 200-day

moving average of $1.115. The dollar was also 0.39% higher

against the pound GBP= to $1.308, which has lost all its

election gains on fears Britain could leave the European Union

without a trade deal.

The dollar index .DXY "is up two days in a row for the

first time since the last week of November, and has recouped

over a third of its December swoon. Sterling is testing the Dec.

12 low near $1.3050 and a break below would set up a test of the

November 22 low near $1.2825," the Brown Brothers Harriman

analysts wrote.

German business morale rose more than expected in December,

a survey showed on Wednesday, another sign that a manufacturing

slump in Europe's largest economy may be bottoming out after

overall output shrank earlier in the year. The data, however,

failed to help the falling euro. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the United

States may raise tariffs on European goods as it tries to shrink

its chronic trade deficit with the continent, re-igniting

worries about the export-driven euro.

The normally sleepy Hong Kong dollar HKD= hit a five-month

high, roused into its sharpest rally in a year by investment

flows from China, cooling unrest and a global unwinding of long

positions in the greenback. It remained slightly off its July

high of 7.7822; it will hit a 2-1/2 year high if it breaks below

that level.

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