In April, the S&P 500 will mark the beginning of its 11th year in the current secular bull market, a phase that commenced with its April 2013 surge past the highs of 2000 and 2007, Bank of America’s strategists noted on Monday.
Historically, secular bull markets, such as those from 1950-1966 and 1980-2000, spanned 16 and 20 years, respectively. This comparison suggests that the current bull market, now in its middle stages, has the potential to continue through to 2029 or even 2033, the bank’s team said.
“In our view, the 2020 dip resembled the dips in 1987 and 1957. If this was "halftime" for the current secular bull market, it does not rule out a 14-year secular bull market ending in 2027,” they wrote.
In terms of market drivers, Growth stocks continue to lead, maintaining their position of strength, while Value stocks persist in a long-term downtrend.
The relative strength of the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF) against the S&P 500 (SPX) has reached a plateau at the peaks seen in 2020 and 2021. However, the dominant trend favoring Growth over Value remains solid, particularly as it stays above its bullish and ascending weekly moving averages (MAs).
Conversely, the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) continues to trail behind the SPX, underscored by its performance below the descending 13-week, 26-week, and 40-week MAs. Moreover, chart resistance at the January 2024 lower high and past lows from 2021 to 2020 relative to the SPX, confirms the ongoing lagging trend of Value stocks, strategists explained.