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FOREX-U.S. dollar falls as expectations of a Fed rate cut rise

Published 25/02/2020, 21:13
© Reuters.  FOREX-U.S. dollar falls as expectations of a Fed rate cut rise
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By Kate Duguid

NEW YORK, Feb 25 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar index weakened

on Tuesday as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would

cut interest rates this year to relieve pressure on the economy

caused by China's coronavirus outbreak.

The dollar rose last week to its highest level in years as

the virus spread further around the world, with investors

regarding all U.S. assets as safe havens. But the index has

fallen this week as other safe havens have risen because money

managers now think the Fed may be more inclined to cut rates

since it has the most room to do so.

Rate cuts are inflationary, lowering the value of the

dollar.

Expectations that the Fed will cut rates at least 25 basis

points at its June meeting were at 78.3% on Tuesday, according

to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The same tool shows a 4.1% chance

that rates will be in the current 150-175 basis-point range in

December, down from 28.6% a month ago.

"The potential for the economic fallout from the virus to

wash up on U.S. shores has cooled the dollar's rally to

three-year peaks by knocking Treasury yields to multi-year lows

and raising expectations for the Federal Reserve to deliver more

interest rate cuts to keep the record long expansion intact,"

said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union

Business Solutions.

Against a basket of six other currencies the dollar slipped

0.401% to 98.939 =USD , after reaching a three-year high of

close to 100 last week.

The index fell in step with the benchmark 10-year Treasury

note yield US10YT=RR , which hit an all-time low, driven by

safe-haven demand. That flight to safety also saw U.S. stock

indexes fall, with Wall Street's three major indexes down almost

2% on Tuesday. US/ .N

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on

Tuesday alerted Americans to begin preparing for the spread of

coronavirus in the United States after the flu-like virus

surfaced in several more countries. Versus the euro, the dollar was modestly weaker, last down

0.28% at $1.088 EUR= . Market gauges of implied volatility in

euro/dollar eased on Tuesday after rising to their highest level

since October on Monday. EUR1MO=FN

The yen was 0.61% stronger at 110.04 per dollar JPY= .

China's yuan was last up 0.11% at 7.028 per U.S. dollar in

the offshore market, after rising to a five-day high earlier in

the session CNH= .

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