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FOREX-U.S.-China trade deal doubts lifts yen, A$ hits 1-month low

Published 14/11/2019, 03:51
© Reuters.  FOREX-U.S.-China trade deal doubts lifts yen, A$ hits 1-month low
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* Market players wind back optimism on Sino-U.S. trade

* China data undershoots expectations, yuan little affected

* Australian dollar tumbles after dismal local jobs data

* Dollar index near 1-month peak, U.S. inflation rises

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Doubts over whether the United

States and China will be able to reach a preliminary trade deal

helped to lift safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the

Swiss franc on Thursday, while pulling the yuan lower.

Adding to pressure, Chinese retail sales, industrial output

and investment data were weaker than expected, sending the

Australian dollar, already knocked by soft local employment

data, to a one-month low.

U.S.-China trade negotiations have 'hit a snag' over farm

purchases, with Beijing not wanting a deal that looks one-sided

in favour of the United States, the Wall Street Journal reported

on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The report came after President Donald Trump said a trade

deal with China was "close," but offered no details and warned

that he would raise tariffs "substantially" on Chinese goods if

there was no deal. An agreement last month between the two economic powers to

sign a "phase one" pact to end their trade war boosted optimism

in global financial markets, lifting the yuan and other

risk-sensitive currencies.

"If Trump takes a hard line, emboldened by the latest

strength in stock markets, and refuses to make some concessions

to China, there will be risk an agreement cannot be reached at

the last minute," said Makoto Noji, chief currency and foreign

bond strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

A new Reuters poll showed most economists do not expect

Washington and Beijing to reach a permanent trade truce over the

coming year. The yen firmed to 108.77 yen per dollar JPY= , having risen

to as high as 108.66 in previous U.S. trade.

The Japanese currency, often used as a safe-haven asset

because of Japan's status as the world's largest net creditor

nation, has hit a five-month low of 109.49 a week ago.

Against the euro, the yen was firm at 119.60 per euro

EURJPY= , near one-month high touched the previous day.

The yen hardly budged after Japan's GDP data showed the

economy grew an annualised 0.2% in July-September, much below

economists' forecast of 0.8%. The Swiss franc has been firm, having risen almost 0.6% over

the last two days against the euro, to hit its highest level in

more than a month.

The franc traded at 1.0895 per euro EURCHF= , near

Wednesday's peak of 1.0879. Against the dollar, the franc stood

at 0.9898 per dollar CHF= .

The unexpectedly downbeat China data highlighted continued

pressure on the world's second-largest economy and subsequent

risks to global growth. The yuan took the data in its stride, though, staying little

changed at 7.0223 yuan per dollar in onshore trade CNY=CFXS .

But it stood off its three-month high of 6.9650 touched on

Friday.

The Australian dollar was down more than a half percentage

point to a one-month low of $0.6798 AUD=D4 after the data.

It was pummelled earlier by weak domestic employment data

showing the first fall in payrolls in three years. The euro stood little changed at $1.10075 EUR= , having

touched one-month low of $1.0995 in U.S. trade while the dollar

index stood not far from one-month high touched in the previous

session.

The index last stood at 98.38 =USD .

U.S. consumer prices jumped by the most in seven months in

October, which together with abating fears of a recession,

support the Federal Reserve's signal for no further interest

rate cuts in the near term. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday told

Congress that the negative interest rates sought by Trump aren't

appropriate for a U.S. economy with ongoing growth, a strong

labour market and steady inflation. Sterling was little moved at $1.2857 GBP=D4 , stuck in a

tight range this week, in a limbo ahead of a Dec. 12 election.

A poll carried out for the Daily Telegraph newspaper showed

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives have a

healthy 10-point lead over main opposition Labour. One-month implied volatilities of sterling options jumped to

11.4/12.1% GBP1MO= from 7.25/7.95% on Wednesday as the

instruments start to cover a period after the election.

Still, that is below this year's high above 14% marked in

late October.

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