Bitcoin: Breakout Above $117K Resistance Could Unlock Fresh Upside

• Bitcoin extends its September rebound but faces critical resistance at $117K.

• Fed’s rate cut and hawkish tone keep crypto markets in “wait-and-see” mode.

• Key levels in focus: $114.6K support vs. $120K–125.5K breakout potential.

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After sharp swings earlier this month, crypto markets settled into narrower ranges last week as investors weighed interest-rate policy and fresh regulatory signals. Bitcoin gained about 1.5%, extending its two-week climb in the wake of the Fed’s rate cut, while altcoins remained more hesitant. Ethereum’s partial downtrend dragged on broader altcoin sentiment, leaving the market without a clear direction.

Fed in the Spotlight

Caution dominated the first half of the week ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision. Bitcoin hovered around $115,000, while altcoins lagged. On Wednesday, optimism over a potential cut pushed Bitcoin briefly above $116,000.

The Fed delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point cut. Markets had already priced in this move for September, but Powell’s hawkish comments tempered hopes for stronger upside. The result: crypto benefited modestly from a lower-rate backdrop, but the Fed’s cautious tone capped gains.

Corporate and Regulatory Developments

On the institutional front, the exclusion of Strategy from the S&P 500 raised questions about long-term Bitcoin strategies. At the same time, the SEC unveiled a rule to speed up approvals for crypto ETFs—a development that could make it easier for products tied to assets like Solana and XRP to reach investors.

On-chain data echoed the cautious mood. Bitcoin reserves on exchanges fell to their lowest levels since early 2023, while stablecoin balances rose. This suggests investors are preparing to deploy capital but remain hesitant to enter aggressively. Globally, tighter signals—such as the Bank of Japan’s move on ETFs and real estate—added pressure to risk assets.

By week’s end, Bitcoin had notched a limited rise, supported by its September uptrend. Still, the prevailing mood across crypto remained “wait-and-see.”

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

Bitcoin, which lost nearly 6.5% in August, rebounded in early September after finding support near $108,000. Breaking above its descending channel, the cryptocurrency shifted into a more sideways pattern.

Currently struggling to clear $116,900—a resistance level that triggered selling last month—Bitcoin begins the week near $117,000. Sustained momentum above this level could target $119,000–120,000, with further scope toward $125,500 if buyers hold the short-term trendline. A pullback toward $114,600 would likely attract fresh demand, keeping the uptrend intact.

Overbought readings on the daily chart, however, hint at fatigue. If Bitcoin consolidates near $114,600, the cooling of the Stochastic RSI could provide room for a healthier rally. Conversely, daily closes below $114,600 risk a return to the falling channel, opening the door to $111,000 and possibly $107,000.

Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance: $117,000, then $120,000–125,500

• Support: $114,600, with $111,000 and $107,000 as deeper levels

Bottom line: If Bitcoin holds above $117,000, a fresh rally toward $125,500 is on the table. But failure to defend $114,600 could revive the bearish channel. For now, traders are watching these thresholds closely as the market tests its conviction.

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Disclaimer This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.