EUR/USD in Sideways Consolidation Above Key Support - Watch for a Break Above 1.17

EUR/USD is trading at 1.1667, with an intraday range between 1.1652 and 1.1675. The pair is consolidating just above its short-term moving averages, with the 15-day moving average at 1.1659 and the 20-day moving average at 1.1662 tightly aligned, signalling indecision in the short-term trend.

Key Technical Observations

• Tight Moving Averages: Both moving averages are nearly overlapping, confirming a lack of momentum and sideways trading bias.
• Support Structure: Price continues to hold above the 1.1600 area, which has acted as a reliable base for buyers since the last breakout.
• Resistance Capping Gains: The 1.1700–1.1750 zone remains a tough ceiling, rejecting multiple upside attempts in recent sessions.
• RSI Neutral: The RSI (14) is at 51.56, sitting in the mid-zone with no clear overbought or oversold signals, further supporting the consolidation bias.

Macro & Market Context

• Fed Policy Outlook: Recent USD weakness is tied to speculation of a Fed pause on rate hikes, though stronger US data could reinject volatility.
• ECB Watch: Traders remain alert to Eurozone inflation and growth signals, which may determine whether the euro sustains its medium-term strength.
• Risk Sentiment: Global risk flows remain a driver — risk-on tends to support the pair, while risk-off could reintroduce dollar strength.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: 1.1700 (psychological barrier)
• Next Resistance: 1.1800–1.1850 (recent peak area)
• Immediate Support: 1.1630–1.1650 (moving average cluster and horizontal support)
• Breakdown Support: 1.1600 (key psychological and trendline level)

Bias: Neutral to Mildly Bullish

The pair is consolidating in a tight band, with upside attempts capped at 1.1700. A breakout above 1.1700 could open the way toward 1.1800, while failure to hold 1.1600 would tilt the structure bearish and expose 1.1500.

Patience may be required in this range-bound environment. Buying dips near 1.1630–1.1600 with tight stops could offer favourable setups for bullish traders. Conversely, waiting for a clean breakout above 1.1700 before entering long positions may be the safer option. Shorting into the range risks being whipsawed unless 1.1600 is decisively broken.