Wall St futures steady as markets eye jobless claims, PCE inflation data
The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.3510, with an intraday high of 1.3526 and a low of 1.3505. Price action has softened after its rally from the 1.24–1.25 base earlier this year, now consolidating in a sideways band under resistance.
Key Technical Observations
- Moving Averages Neutral:
The 15-day moving average (1.3542) is slightly above the 20-day moving average (1.3526), showing a mild short-term bullish tilt. However, the slope is flattening, suggesting fading momentum. - Trend Structure:
The broader uptrend from the early-2025 lows near 1.24 remains valid, but current candles indicate a loss of directional conviction, with repeated rejections above 1.36. - RSI Neutral:
The RSI is at 49.23, hovering around the midpoint, reflecting indecision and lack of clear momentum for either buyers or sellers. - Sideways Bias:
The pair has been trading in a tight 1.34–1.37 corridor, with neither side able to secure a breakout.
Macro & Market Context
- USD Influence (DXY):
The US Dollar Index remains under pressure but is showing tentative stability near 97–98. This keeps the pair buoyed but limits upside momentum. - BoE vs Fed:
The Bank of England has maintained a hawkish tilt versus the Fed’s softer stance, supporting GBP. However, economic headwinds in the UK (growth slowdown and inflation risk) are tempering enthusiasm. - Risk Sentiment:
Market appetite for risk assets has been supportive of GBP, but any equity volatility could trigger renewed demand for USD safe-haven flows.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 1.3600 – round number and recent rejection zone.
- Next Resistance: 1.3780 – key swing high.
- Immediate Support: 1.3450 – moving average cluster and recent swing low.
- Deeper Support: 1.3250 – February base.
Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish
Momentum has cooled, but the pair remains above its key support zones. Unless the pair breaks decisively below 1.3450, the broader uptrend is intact, with potential for another push toward 1.36–1.37.
The pair is in wait-and-see mode. For bulls, dips into the 1.3450–1.3500 region remain potential buying opportunities, while upside is capped near 1.36–1.37 unless a breakout confirms. Traders should watch closely for whether the pair breaks out of its sideways consolidation.
