Gold prices hover near record peaks as Fed rate cut bets mount
Gold has pushed to fresh record highs above $3,640, extending a relentless bullish run that has captured the attention of traders worldwide. The question now facing market participants is whether this rally still has legs—or whether a corrective pullback is overdue.
Key Drivers Behind the Rally
1. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s evolving stance remains the primary catalyst. Traders are increasingly pricing in rate cuts, which typically weaken the US dollar and boost gold as a non-yielding store of value.
2. Central Bank Accumulation
Emerging-market central banks continue to diversify away from dollar reserves. This steady demand has underpinned gold prices even during periods of profit-taking.
3. Geopolitical Tensions
From ongoing conflicts to shifting alliances, geopolitical instability has reinforced gold’s status as the ultimate safe-haven asset.
4. ETF and Institutional Flows
Recent weeks have shown renewed inflows into gold-backed ETFs, a key signal that institutional investors are re-engaging after months of cautious positioning.
Technical Landscape: Extended but Constructive
- On the 4H timeframe, gold continues to print higher highs and higher lows.
- The current dealing range sits between $3,662 (swing high) and $3,608 (swing low), with equilibrium around $3,635.
- Key support levels rest at $3,626–$3,632 and deeper at $3,612–$3,618.
- Resistance stands near $3,660–$3,666, where liquidity from prior highs could trigger profit-taking.
Trading Ideas (Execution Zones)
- Golden Buy Zone: $3,626–$3,632 → Target $3,660+ | Stop Loss $3,623.
- Backup Buy Zone: $3,612–$3,618 → Target $3,660 | Stop Loss $3,608.
- Counter Sell Zone: $3,660–$3,666 → Target $3,640–$3,630 | Stop Loss $3,669.
Take Profits (all setups):
- TP1 = +50 pips
- TP2 = +100 pips
- TP3 = +150 pips
- TP4 = +200 pips
- TP5 = Open
Outlook: What Traders Should Watch
Gold’s long-term bullish thesis remains intact, driven by central bank demand and macroeconomic uncertainty. Yet, traders must remain cautious: stretched momentum often precedes sharp pullbacks. For now, the strategy is to favor dip-buying within discount zones while managing risk tightly around overextended levels.
Medium term, a sustained push above $3,680 could unlock further upside toward the psychological $3,700 mark. Conversely, a decisive break below $3,600 would indicate a deeper corrective phase.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.