Gold: Bulls and Bears Face Off as Rate Cuts and Trade Talks Collide

Gold is once again in the global spotlight as investors hold their breath, wondering if the precious metal’s dramatic run will continue—or hit an abrupt wall. With the world’s two economic giants poised for a high-stakes meeting and the Federal Reserve set to make pivotal decisions, the stage is set for a day that could send shockwaves through the gold market. Will gold soar to new heights, or will hopes for a rally melt away in the face of shifting policies and trade negotiations?

After reviewing the movements of the gold futures on different time charts, amid growing bets over the further rate cuts before the year ends, while the Federal Reserve is expected to cut 25-basis points today, and will issue guidance over the future cuts.

Another development on the trade tariff tussle between the two major economies is expected to ease today could ease as the U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on dialing down their hugely damaging trade war on Wednesday (October 29, 2025) which could prove to an important mile stone if remain successful today which could be supportive for gold bears to remain aggressive till the end of this year.

Still, the dilemma over the success of today’s meeting remains, as both leaders will press for their own agendas. The U.S. President has said that he was “not sure” whether he would discuss the sensitive topic of self-ruling Taiwan during his meeting with the Chinese leader.

Undoubtedly, surging indecisiveness has grimmed the current scenario on Wednesday, resulting in some reversal by gold futures after testing the day’s low at $3957.96, well above yesterday’s tested low at $3901, and the futures are not signaling any clear directional move as teetering in a narrow range, well below yesterday’s tested high at $4034.

I find that the gold futures could find a jolting move in today’s session after the decisive outcome from the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, which could push the futures below the immediate support at $3879, where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next significant support at the 50 DMA ($3823). At the same time, any disruption in resolving trade tariff issues could turn the trend in favor of the bulls tonight, but the upside could surge the prevailing selling pressure.

On the other hand, Bank of America states that the recent surge in gold prices is not out of the ordinary and expects the rally to continue, with the metal reaching $ 5,000 per ounce by 2026. In the latest Global Metals Weekly note, BofA commodity strategist Michael Widmer commented that gold “has rallied sharply in recent months on a confluence of macro factors.

While the market has become “overbought, “Widmer believes “the magnitude of the current rally is not out of the ordinary when compared to any of the gold bull markets since 1970.” The bank forecasts an average price of $3,800 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025, followed by “a push higher to $5000 per ounce next year.”

But, I don’t agree with his views as I find that the recent pull-back by gold futures look evident enough to continue this slide till the end of this year to test the levels even below $2805 once we find some positive outcome from today’s meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping as both of them look more worried about to resolve this issue at priority basis to lessen their budget deficit.

I anticipate that if the gold futures make a sustainable move below the significant support at the 50 DMA ($3823.58), next supports at the 100 DMA ($3602) and 200 DMA ($3356) will be targeted by the gold bears as easing central banks buying could be supportive for the gold bears to test these levels before Nov. 13, 2025.

I find that the gold futures are following the same path as I explained in my last analysis https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-what-if-futures-repeat-1980-slide-from-2025-peak-200669236 yesterday, while explaining the rationale behind the repetition of the 1980s slide after testing the peak.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.