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Gold futures are entering a critical transition phase as we approach the end of 2025. The Variable Changing Price Momentum Indicator (VC PMI) framework identifies a clear reversion from the Buy 1 Daily ($3,937) and Buy 1 Weekly ($3,973) zones, with current price action sustaining above the VC PMI Daily mean of $3,991. This structural recovery confirms that the market has rebalanced from deeply oversold conditions, initiating a new mean reversion sequence toward the upper resistance bands of $4,055 (Sell 1) and $4,106 (Sell 2).
The 5-day pattern shows price momentum turning up following a sharp retracement from the $4,171.5 high. The reclaim of $4,000 is a pivotal inflection, supported by improving MACD convergence on the 15-minute chart. This signals diminishing downside energy and the early formation of a cyclical base.
Fibonacci and VC PMI Confluence
The retracement structure from the recent $4,171.5 high to $3,901.3 low produces a textbook harmonic reversion map. The 23.6% retracement ($4,016) has been reclaimed, confirming the first leg of a broader recovery. The 38.2% retracement ($4,090) corresponds directly with the VC PMI mean, where equilibrium is re-establishing. A sustained breakout above this level would shift the probability bias toward $4,086 (50% retracement) and $4,150 (61.8% retracement)—both of which align with Sell 2 resistance targets.
The next upside confluence lies at $4,210, marking a potential 360-degree harmonic extension from the current base. This level corresponds to the upper resistance of the current weekly distribution, where both price and time harmonics synchronize with the 60- and 90-day cycles.
Time Cycle Structure: 30–60–90–360 Day Outlook
- 30-Day Cycle (Nov 29, 2025): Marks the first short-term pivot window, likely to confirm continuation toward $4,100–$4,150.
- 60-Day Cycle (Dec 29, 2025): Overlaps with the year-end reversion crest; targets $4,210 if bullish momentum persists.
- 90-Day Cycle (Jan 28, 2026): Expected corrective rotation before the next major advance.
- 360-Day Cycle (Sep 28, 2026): Long-term bullish harmonic expansion projecting new all-time highs beyond $4,500 if pattern symmetry holds.
These harmonics align with Gann’s time geometry, suggesting a sustained bullish phase into early 2026 before a major rebalancing occurs.
Strategy & Conclusion
Holding above the VC PMI mean ($3,991) keeps the short-term trend neutral-to-bullish, with a target zone at $4,055–$4,106. A weekly close above $4,016 confirms upside momentum. Long positions from $3,937–$3,991 remain favorable, with stop-losses under $3,973 (Weekly Buy 1).
The 30- and 60-day cycles suggest a gradual appreciation toward $4,210 into year-end. Any correction into the $3,990–$3,950 zone remains a buying opportunity under the VC PMI mean reversion framework.
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Risk Disclosure: Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always trade with disciplined risk management and proper position sizing.