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Gold futures (/GC) are trading around $3,980.70 this morning, reflecting a modest gain of +0.51% as the market consolidates within a tightly defined mean-reversion band. After reaching a recent high of $4,059.90, price action has stabilized between the daily Buy 1 level of $3,926 and the Sell 2 level of $4,053, forming a compression zone that suggests an imminent directional breakout.
The VC PMI Daily Pivot at $3,972 currently acts as the equilibrium point — a critical level defining the short-term bias. When gold remains above this line, the probability structure favors a move toward the upper daily resistance zones at $4,053 and potentially $4,114, the Sell 1 Weekly target. Conversely, a sustained close below $3,926 would shift the bias toward the lower probability bands at $3,891 and $3,784, marking the Buy 2 Daily and Weekly levels respectively. These levels historically attract mean-reversion buying interest from professional traders seeking asymmetrical risk-to-reward setups.
Momentum indicators, particularly the MACD (14, 3, 3), have turned slightly positive after multiple sessions of consolidation. The histogram has crossed above zero, confirming that bullish energy is beginning to rebuild. This technical alignment suggests a short-term rotation higher, especially if price sustains above $3,980 into the U.S. trading session. Volume remains steady but subdued, typical of markets awaiting confirmation of a breakout from compression.
From a cycle analysis perspective, gold appears to be forming a 30-day intermediate low near $3,900, aligning with the 60-day and 90-day VC PMI harmonic cycles that project a potential upswing into mid-December. The market’s ability to sustain above $3,972 this week could trigger a reaccumulation phase leading into the next Gann cycle crest, with projected targets between $4,114 and $4,230.
The gold futures (/GC) price line chart above extended through November 2025, showing the current trading structure relative to the VC PMI levels and key Fibonacci zones.
- The gold line traces daily price movement.
- The green dashed line ($3,972) marks the VC PMI Daily Pivot, serving as the equilibrium point.
- Blue and cyan lines indicate the Buy 1 and Buy 2 daily support levels ($3,926 and $3,891).
- Red and dark red lines show the Sell 2 Daily ($4,053) and Sell 1 Weekly ($4,114) resistances.
- The purple dotted line ($3,784) represents the Buy 2 Weekly long-term support zone.
The broader macro environment continues to favor precious metals amid uncertainty surrounding central bank policy, inflation expectations, and ongoing risk rotation away from digital assets. The recent Bitcoin selloff has further strengthened the flight to tangible stores of value, lending additional support to gold’s technical posture.
In conclusion, the gold market remains balanced near equilibrium but biased toward the upside. A confirmed breakout above $4,070 would activate a bullish continuation toward $4,150 and $4,209, while a close below $3,926 would reset the mean-reversion structure toward deeper supports. The probability matrix remains constructive within the current cycle phase, validating a neutral-to-bullish outlook into mid-November.