Gold: Market Structure Signals Retracement With High Probability Buy Setup

Institutional Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook

Live Price Anchor: $3613

Analysis performed on Gold 4H (anchor) and 1H (execution refinement) timeframes using SMC + ICT framework.

1. Market Structure & Price Action (4H Anchor)

• Dealing Range: $3560 (swing low) ↔ $3648 (swing high) → EQ ≈ $3604.
• Trend Context: Market is in bullish structure (HH/HL formation).
• Last BOS: Bullish BOS confirmed above $3628 with displacement.
• Phase: Retracement after impulse → price hovering just above EQ ($3604).

2. Liquidity Mapping

• Buy-side liquidity (BSL): Above $3648 (external liquidity).
• Sell-side liquidity (SSL): Resting below $3590 & deeper at $3560 (swing low).
• Equal lows: $3598–$3600 cluster = inducement layer near EQ.

Session Anchors:

• PDH: $3642
• PDL: $3602
• Daily Open: $3620

3. Key SMC & ICT Levels

• Bullish OB (4H): $3595–$3605 (fresh, unmitigated, impulse origin).
• Refinement (1H): $3600–$3603 OB + 50% body refinement.
• FVG (4H): $3610–$3620 (partially balanced, acts as magnet).
• OTE (Retracement): Longs fit between $3596–$3604 (discount array).
• BPR: Overlap of OB & FVG around $3600–$3605.

4. Execution-Ready Zones

Priority 1 Buy Zone (Golden Zone of the Day)

• Location: $3596–$3604 (refined 4H OB + 1H OTE + EQ inducement).
• Confluence Score: 6 (OB + OTE + EQ inducement + liquidity sweep + displacement BOS + session low proximity).
• Entry Logic: Buy after sweep of $3600 equal lows into OB/FVG cluster.
• Stop Loss (SL): $3588

Take Profits:

• TP1 = +50 pips
• TP2 = +100 pips
• TP3 = +150 pips
• TP4 = +200 pips
• TP5 = Open

Priority 2 Sell Zone

• Location: $3642–$3648 (4H supply + external BSL inducement).
• Confluence Score: 5 (BSL sweep + OB + Premium array + PDH + displacement risk).
• Entry Logic: Short after liquidity grab above PDH into OB.
• Stop Loss (SL): $3652
• Take Profits: Common TP levels.

Priority 3 Buy Zone

• Location: $3570–$3578 (deep demand near swing low).
• Confluence Score: 4 (external SSL sweep + OB + discount array + round number defense).
• Entry Logic: Aggressive long only if $3600 zone fails.
• Stop Loss (SL): $3560
• Take Profits: Common TP levels.

5. Final Call

Priority 1 Buy Zone ($3596–$3604, SL $3588) is the Golden Zone of the Day.

This zone aligns with 4H–1H confluence, EQ inducement, and discount pricing — the highest-probability institutional setup.