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The current pause reflects market equilibrium above key monthly pivots, with MACD stabilization suggesting gold is gathering energy for the next phase of its 360-day cycle advance.
Gold futures (/GCZ25) continue to consolidate above the critical VC PMI Monthly pivot at $4,007, holding firm within a tight range that defines a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. The October high of $4,398 aligned precisely with the 360-day Sell 1 target of $4,182, signaling that the market reached a significant resistance zone where profit-taking emerged.
The pullback to $4,023 suggests a natural mean-reversion pause rather than the start of a downtrend, particularly as the market remains above the Buy 1 Monthly level of $3,891 and well supported by the broader 360-day cycle base near $3,361.
From a structural standpoint, gold is trading in the upper third of its 360-day price distribution, suggesting continued accumulation ahead of a potential breakout phase. The long-term bullish framework that began with the 360-day cycle low of September 28, 2025, remains intact.
The next major cycle date—September 17, 2025—could mark the culmination of this upward expansion, potentially driving the price toward the Sell 2 360-day objective at $4,565. This target also aligns with a full 360-degree rotation on the Square of 9 harmonic grid, reinforcing its geometric and cyclical significance.
Momentum readings from the MACD (14,3,3) confirm that gold is in a digestion phase. The MACD line at 46.86 has eased from a recent overbought level of 52.7, with the histogram turning slightly negative. This behavior is typical of mid-cycle consolidations, often preceding a resumption of the primary trend.
As long as MACD stabilizes above zero and turns upward again, renewed buying pressure could carry gold back above the monthly resistance zone of $4,113–$4,230. A sustained close above this band would trigger the next acceleration phase toward $4,565.
On the downside, any pullback toward the $3,784–$3,891 area would represent a high-probability reversion trade opportunity, consistent with the VC PMI mean-reversion principle. The 360-day equilibrium level at $3,361 remains a structural line of defense within the long-term cycle and defines the boundary between bullish continuation and potential trend exhaustion.
In summary, the technical and cyclical evidence continues to favor a bullish bias. Gold is consolidating after completing its first major advance of the 2025 cycle. The alignment of monthly and 360-day pivots, coupled with stabilizing momentum, supports the probability of a breakout toward $4,230 and ultimately $4,565 as the market advances into the second quarter of 2026. This consolidation, while frustrating to short-term traders, represents the necessary preparation for the next phase of the super-cycle advance.
Risk Disclosure: Futures trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.