Gold: Time–Price Compression Signals Next Breakout

Gold is trading at $3,411.2, locked in a compressed range after falling from the August 7 high of $3,534.1. The market is now coiled between the Weekly Buy 1 at $3,415 and Daily Pivot at $3,408, creating a low-volatility “energy build” zone that precedes high-probability breakouts.

This setup is notable because price, time, and cycle structure are converging — a hallmark of imminent expansion in volatility.

Price Structure & VC PMI Alignment

• Immediate Support:
  • Daily Buy 2: $3,378
  • Weekly Buy 2: $3,338 (reinforced by recent low $3,379.1)

• Immediate Resistance:
  
  
• Daily Sell 1: $3,423
• Daily Sell 2: $3,438
• Weekly Pivot: $3,474

The $3,423–$3,438 resistance band is a price compression zone sitting just under the 38.2% Fib retracement ($3,456.3) and the 50% retracement ($3,474.9), which also coincides with the Weekly Pivot.

Gann Time Cycles

Using the August 7 high as the time anchor (T = 0):

• 45° time rotation → Aug 13–14 (current session) – first window for trend change.
• 90° time rotation → Aug 15–16 – statistically stronger reversal window.
• 180° time rotation (half cycle) → Sept 21–22 – medium-term pivot potential.

Price is now in the first Gann turn cluster (Aug 13–16), meaning that even minor news catalysts can initiate a breakout.

Gann Square of 9 – Price Projection

From the $3,534.1 high:

• First downside rotation (180°) → $3,474 (already tested and rejected).
• Next downside rotation (270°) → $3,415 – aligns exactly with Weekly Buy 1.
• Full 360° rotation → $3,338 – aligns perfectly with Weekly Buy 2 and major support.

On the upside, if $3,423–$3,438 is cleared:

• 90° rotation up → $3,456
• 180° rotation up → $3,501
• 270° rotation up → $3,535 – full retrace to August high.

360-Day Cycle Overlay

Looking at the broader annual cycle from the major 2024 lows:

• The 360-day rhythm shows a primary energy peak occurring in early September 2025.
• The current August time window is a pre-peak reactionary phase, often producing a false breakout or a deep retracement before the final seasonal push into the September peak.
• Historically, gold tends to make a pivot low 20–30 days before the September seasonal high, placing the Aug 13–16 time cluster as a statistically probable low formation zone.

Time–Price Confluence

When combining VC PMI pivots, Gann time cycles, Square of 9 price harmonics, and the 360-day seasonal model, the alignment is striking:

• Support Confluence Zone: $3,378–$3,338 (Daily Buy 2, Weekly Buy 2, Square of 9 360° rotation, seasonal pre-peak low)
• Resistance Confluence Zone: $3,423–$3,474 (Daily S1/S2, Weekly Pivot, Fib 38.2–50%, Square of 9 180° rotation)
• Time Confluence: Aug 13–16 (Gann 45°–90° turn window)

This combination suggests that the next 48–72 hours hold an unusually high probability of producing a sharp directional move.

Trading Implications

• Bullish Scenario:
  
  
• Hold above $3,408 → Break $3,423–$3,438 → Target $3,456, $3,474, then $3,501–$3,535.
• Ideal timing for breakout: Aug 14–16.
  
  
• Bearish Scenario:
  
  
• Break below $3,378 → Immediate target $3,338 → Potential washout low before September rally cycle resumes.
• Neutral Bias until breakout, but time pressure from the Aug 13–16 cycle window makes “waiting for confirmation” riskier than usual for trend traders.

TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.