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On Thursday, while I was writing my last analysis, movements of the gold futures were looking full of suspicion as the gold bulls were trying to remain in commanding position since the end of trade tariff August 1 deadline, despite a surge in bearish pressure on U.S. dollar Index futures which were on a steep slide after testing a significant level at 100 on August 1, 2025.
But now, I feel that a sudden flow of news headline, as FT reported, citing a ruling letter dated July 31, the U.S has slapped import tariffs on one-kilo gold bars, might be flowing among the gold bugs as a insider news since August 1, which finally broke the silence yesterday, resulted in a bumpy move that pushed the gold futures to test a new high at $3534.
Undoubtedly, this was a reactionary move by the gold futures on this news that not only extends the uncertainty, already prevailing due to the massive denting impact of the trade tariffs, which are uneven, and could disrupt the global economic growth, as such a move by the U.S. President looks peculiar since the last global recession.
I anticipate that the U.S. Customs Border Protection agency’s move largely contrasts earlier expectations that the import of gold bars would be exempt from Trump’s sweeping tariffs as one-kilo bars are the most common form traded on the COMEX, the world’s biggest gold futures market, with a bulk of them coming from Switzerland, which is already facing a 39% duty on exports to the United States, and is a major gold exporter to the United States.
On Friday, gold futures rose slightly but look indecisive as facing extensive bearish pressure below the immediate resistance at $3510, a level tested by the gold futures on Apr. 22, 2025 before the advent of a selling spree that pushed the gold futures to test a significant support at $3210 within next seven trading sessions till May 1, 2025.
Undoubtedly, this was a 74 degree fall from April 22 to May 1, which is likely to be repeated once again by the gold futures if the gold futures do not find a sustainable move above this significant resistance at $3510 while this week’s closing below the important support at $3468 will confirm the advent of a slide next week.
Inversely, if the gold futures find a breakout above this significant resistant at $3510, bears will load fresh shorts with a stop loss at $3543, as I mentioned in my last analysis, for a target at $3262 for the next week as the U.S. dollar Index futures look ready for a steep reversal, if close this week above the immediate resistance at the 50 DMA at 97.947.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.