Upon analyzing the movements of the gold futures in a monthly chart, I find that a bullish pattern, seen in gold prices since Oct. 2023 is about to end as the Cup & Handle formation is near its end this month if the gold futures confirm this breakdown with a downward move below the immediate support at $3270.
Undoubtedly, the big bears at $3427 have capped the upside in gold futures. The slide is likely to start once the gold futures find a breakdown below the significant support at $3313 in a short while, as the easing tension between the U.S. and China over the tariff trade tussle has resulted in a reversal of the US dollar and global stocks on Tuesday.
Any further progress in the negotiations is likely to provide relief to markets given that Trump’s often shifting tariff announcements and swings in Sino-U.S. ties have undermined the world’s two biggest economies, disrupted supply chains, and threaten to hobble global growth that generated recessionary fear around the world since the beginning of Trump’s 2.0 on Jan. 20, this year.
Undoubtedly, Trump’s erratic trade policies and worries over Washington’s debt pile have dented investors’ confidence in U.S. assets, in turn undermining the dollar, which has already fallen more than 8% for the year that fueled this rally in gold, is likely to resume its strength shortly this week.
The next test for the greenback will be on Wednesday when US inflation data are due. Expectations are for core consumer prices to have picked up slightly in May, which could counter bets of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
I anticipate that the current rally is likely to ease as this has pushed the gold futures much above the target in a Cup & Handle formation, which is calculated by adding the depth of the Cup from the level where the Cup formation starts and ends.
On mapping the depth of the Cup in a monthly chart, depth comes to $876 from the starts and ends of this Cup, and if we add $876 at the end of this cup at $1924,the targets come to $2800.
Undoubtedly, the current rally has pushed the gold futures much above this target price in a monthly chart that will trigger a selling spree in gold futures that would send the gold futures to this target at $2800 this year.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold futures at their own risk as this analysis is based only on observations.