Gold: Volatility Likely to Persist Amid Looming Uncertainty Over Trade Deals

Published 18/08/2025, 07:34
Updated 18/08/2025, 08:20

After reviewing the series of developments on tariff trade front between the U.S. and Russia Since August 15, 2025, I anticipate that this meeting didn’t yield the expected ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, could shift to the Fed’s move on interest cuts in its September meeting as this scenario could have potential impact on gold prices as the Trump’s step back on his stance on “very severe consequences” for Russia if it didn’t agree to a ceasefire could encourage gold bears to remain on the top.

However, French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday said support for Kyiv and pressure on Russia needed to continue until “a solid and durable peace” had been achieved in Ukraine.

On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans to meet US President Donald Trump in Washington next week, following Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, which concluded without any agreement to end the war in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy described a “long and substantive” call with Trump on Saturday, thanking him for the initiative and stating they would “discuss all the details regarding ending the killing and the war”.

Moreover, Zelenskyy stressed “It is important Europeans are involved at every stage to ensure reliable security guarantees together with America. He also noted encouraging signs from the U.S. about participating in Ukraine’s security, as U.S. President Donald Trump has already said that after the summit, there is no deal until there’s a deal, despite Putin’s claims of “Understanding.”

I find that the current scenario will continue to remain in favor of gold bulls till the final outcome of any solid decision on a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, as any failure to achieve complete peace could disrupt all the attempts made by the global leaders to end Russia-Ukraine war.

Undoubtedly, gold futures could remain indecisive as the progress on tariff trade deal between the U.S. and Russia, still awaits a clear stance from Russian President Putin as the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy who is supposed to meet with U.S. President Trump on Monay, could adopt some adoptive policies to pursue Trump to extend diplomatic pressure on Putin to achieve his main target to end Russia-Ukraine war.

I find that the gold bugs could overly react on developments this weekend which have extended the indecisiveness among the gold bulls and bears as both are still indecisive, and could repeat August 8 move which resulted in an extremely volatile move of $88 (when gold futures tested a low at $3448, a high at $3536 before closing the day at $3492), once again on Monday as the gold futures look ready to test the 100 DMA at $3325 and the immediate resistance at $3413, before closing the day at the last weekly closing.

Undoubtedly, last week’s developments on trade tariff front while the US President announced to keep the gold bars out of trade tariffs ring that ticked the gold higher for three consecutive days but his steps back on imposing tariff on China for another 90 days to avoid a three-digit tariff, looks in favor of the gold bears, has raised indecisiveness in the absence of any clear stance on tariff deal with Russia this week-end.

I find that no news is good news as the investors could have reacted more negatively if the U.S.-Russia deal in Alaska had ended with negative outcomes but now hopes are still persist as the U.S. President have sent positive signals by saying that he will always be available if Russia and Ukraine agree for a ceasefire.

Undoubtedly, this could be a positive signal for the gold bears to remain active during the upcoming weeks, as the gold has already lost its safe haven potential at such high prices as the upside for gold futures has been capped by the bears at $3510.

Gold Futures Daily Chart

Finally, I conclude that if the gold futures find a breakdown below the immediate support at the 50 DMA at $3379 could try to pierce below the 100 DMA at $3325 till Tuesday before heading towards the next support at $3210 up to August 28, 2025.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is only based on observations.

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