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After reviewing the movements of the gold futures on different time chart patterns since Oct. 20, 2025, I anticipate that the gold futures await further clues, as the changing stances of U.S. President Donald Trump have turned the global economic scenario prone to indecisiveness.
On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he was “not really considering a deal to sell Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, but added he was open to changing his mind as his administration has made little visible progress on bridging the gap between Russian and Ukrainian demands for a peace deal while Moscow has said it would damage relations with the U.S. if Trump greenlit the transfer of Tomahawks, and that would be an “escalation” of the conflict.
On October 31, 2025, after a meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping in Busan, President Trump delivered unexpected dovish comments on China, saying “full-scale tariffs on China can’t last forever.”
On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump called critical minerals a key priority as he hosted the leaders of five Central Asian nations at the White House, emphasizing his administration’s efforts to expand and secure U.S. supply chains through new global agreements.
I anticipate that this effort by U.S. President Donald Trump is evident enough to show his attempt to influence both China and Russia, as both are trying to create a new setup in Asia and the Middle East by promoting their local currencies through facilitating trade with some Asian and Middle Eastern nations.
Undoubtedly, such a scenario could generate fresh challenges for the whole world while the U.S. economic activities remain brisk, helped steady the stock market, but this also cast more doubt on why the Federal Reserve needs to ease again next month, and that has pushed Treasury yields high.
The week’s latest tech wobble calmed on Wednesday as the service sector survey impressed, although valuation concerns smoldered. But a rare trickle of macro data during what’s now a record-long government shutdown was the focus on Wednesday. Private sector jobs rose above forecast last month, service firms reported rising activity and prices, and quarterly Fed lending data showed relatively stable household credit conditions.
With futures showing little more than a 60% chance of another Fed cut next month, treasuries balked, and the long-dated yields hit their highest in almost a month. A string of the Fed’s heavy hitters is speaking again.
I find that amid such an indecisive scenario, existing global concerns could result in a big jolt, as the currently prevailing situation could generate a fresh selling spree in precious metals to fetch more U.S. dollars, as the global central banks are no longer on a massive buying spree in gold at the current levels, where the gold has already lost its safe-haven potential.
Technical Levels to Watch
In a monthly chart, gold futures have already formed a big bearish candle last month which this month’s gold futures are only trying to sustain above the immediate resistance at $4020, which is below the next resistance at $4082. This indicates that the extensive bearish pressure is too high at the current levels, which could push the futures to retest the lows of the last months.
In a weekly chart, after testing a low at the significant support at $3782, gold futures are finding it difficult to break above the immediate resistance at $4038.77. Only a sustainable move above this could raise hopes of the bulls, where the next resistance will be at $4082. I find that if the gold futures close this week below the immediate support at the 9 DMA ($3924) could turn the trend in favor of the Bears.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.