Market Overview

Data steepens the curves from the back endRates were pressured higher on the back of the much-better-than-expected retail sales data. A potential weather-related bounce in the data for January had...

Higher-for-Longer Narrative Hurts Bond LongsMonthly US inflation came in line with expectations in January. After hesitating, rates went resolutely higher. Given the lack of a clear signal in the CPI...

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently stated: “You don’t have a recession when you have the lowest unemployment rate in 53 years.” Let’s HOPE she is correct. As logical...

Despite coming in below the previous reading, U.S. inflation data was slightly above expectations The initial market reaction was a mixed bag However, it is likely that inflation could fall sharply...

The market correction has started. The question we have repeatedly discussed over the last several weeks is the ongoing battle between bullish technical improvements and bearish fundamentals.On...

Sunday’s Super Bowl had a few notable “firsts,” including the first featuring two brothers on opposing teams, but it will undoubtedly be remembered as a major turning point in sports...

Bullish investors continue to “Fight the Fed,” hoping that a change to monetary policy will reignite the 12-year-long bull market. But, for over a decade, the “Don’t Fight The...

Our base case remains negative EPS growth and a higher unemployment rate from May/June 2023.In other words: a recession. But what if we are wrong?Labor HoardingDuring the pandemic, companies...

The stock market is betting on a Goldilocks scenario. Jerome Powell doesn’t foresee a recession, instead, he forecasts a soft landing. Apollo is bettering the soft landing scenario with an...

Last week, we discussed why the more bullish technical formations were at odds with the many recession forecasts. Not surprisingly, that article generated substantial pushback from readers, pointing...

The U.S. stock market rally this year continues to be led by so-called high-beta stocks, which are outperforming the broad market by a wide margin, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Monday’s...

Last week, FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) became the prevailing market narrative.As data seemed to further validate the soft landing narrative and central bankers became ‘’data...

In the following video, I explain what I believe to be the 3 most important things to know about the global macro outlook in February.

Movements of the S&P 500 since the Fed’s interest rate hike on Feb. 1 indicate that despite the late weekly selling, the index still managed to close last week with a 1.6%...