Market Overview

The most recent NFIB (National Federation Of Independent Business) survey is sending a strong signal of an economic recession. In 2019, the NFIB survey, combined with an inverted yield curve,...

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate range 25bp to 4.5%-4.75% and indicated it isn’t finished yet. With the economy losing momentum, the jobs market showing tentative signs of cooling, and...

US market rates fell after the Federal Reserve decision but this looks more like a market positioning effect than anything specific from the meeting. Expect some retracement. Both the European Central...

BOEAs for today’s economic calendar, we have two important economic events unfolding. Firstly, it is the Bank of England’s meeting. The bank is expected to increase the interest rate by 50...

In 2021 and 2022 we called the Federal Reserve “tardy” on several occasions as they doggedly held to their “transitory” inflation stance long after reasonable people (using the...

What follows is a somewhat-edited version of Episode #50 of the Inflation Guy Podcast;Hello and welcome to Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy Podcast. I am Michael Ashton, the Inflation Guy, and...

MON: Swiss KOF (Jan), Japanese Retail Sales (Dec), Japanese Unemployment (Dec), UK Nationwide House Price (Jan) TUE: Australian Retail Sales (Dec), Chinese NBS PMIs (Jan), German Import Prices (Dec),...

JUST LIKE THAT, growth stocks are back in vogue. Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE:VUG) has outpaced Vanguard Value ETF (NYSE:VTV) by more than nine percentage points over the past three weeks. That gap in...

Before we move into a review of the last few months of market action to learn what most investors did wrong, I think it is important to begin this missive by reposting something written by Robert...

The soft landing crew is increasingly taking over. No, the bond market’s base case is not a recession - it’s immaculate disinflation. Getting this call right is crucial...

Economists were expecting a decline, but the 1.1% slide in retail spending in December was deeper than expected. Even worse, the monthly slide marks the second straight decline. It could be noise, but...

Over the last few years, I’ve pointed out exhaustively how the current operating approach at the Fed towards monetary policy is distinctly different from past tightening cycles. In fact, it is...

Have a look at the last US inflation report; Answer the big question: Powell pivoted in 2019, is he going for it again in 2023? Analyze what’s priced in for bonds and equity markets: a...

Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate plans and a slowing economy will continue to impact investor sentiment in 2023 I remain bullish on companies with strong fundamentals, reasonable...