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Michael Ashton
CPI Swaps Improving? Not as Significant as You Think By Michael Ashton - Jun 07, 2023

Today we are going to geek out on inflation derivatives a little more. Since early 2022, just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 10y US CPI swaps have fallen from about 3.15% to around 2.50% (see...

James Picerno
U.S. Economy Set to Continue Growing in Q2 By James Picerno - Jun 06, 2023

The odds remain low that the US will slip into a recession in the second quarter, based on current GDP nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Although recession forecasts endure, the numbers...

Lance Roberts
Fed’s Fight Against Inflation Is Far From Over By Lance Roberts - Jun 02, 2023

Could monetary conditions be supportive of the “soft landing” scenario? While the “recession” versus “no recession” debate rages, there is a precedent for a...

James Picerno
Most Major Asset Classes Decline in May Except U.S. Stocks By James Picerno - Jun 01, 2023

Most of the major asset classes fell in May. The upside exceptions: U.S. stocks and cash. Otherwise, red ink prevailed last month, based on a set of proxy ETFs representing the world’s primary...

Michael Ashton
Don't Bet Against Inflation Yet By Michael Ashton - Jun 01, 2023

I am not the first person to point out that the stock market, at outlandish multiples, is not behaving consistently with commodities markets that are flashing imminent depression. If we insist on...

James Picerno
How Long Will U.S. Economic Resilience Last? By James Picerno - May 31, 2023

The warning signs continue to mount. Yet the US economy continues to defy expectations in some quarters that a recession is near. Granted, it’s arguably a precarious expansion that’s...

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