Market Overview

Recession forecasts for the US continue to swirl, but the risk still looks low from the perspective of expectations for the first-quarter GDP report that’s scheduled for April 27, when the...

Despite media headlines, podcasts, and broadcasts suggesting “doom and gloom” lurks around the corner, investor bullishness has increased markedly sincetheOctober lows. This isn’t...

When the yield curve flattens and eventually inverts, you worry. But it’s when a recession hits, the Fed cuts rates and the curve steepens that you become s**t scared.Yield curve...

I must say that it is discouraging how often I have to write about the Phillips Curve.The Phillips Curve is a very simple idea and a very powerful model. It simply says that when labor is in short...

Assessing US recession risk isn’t getting any easier, but when it comes to cutting through the noise, I continue to rely on combining models for the single-best tool in the toolkit. To...

The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady at 6.0% annualized in March, unchanged from last month and close to its trailing performance over the past decade. The...

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As the Fed tightens monetary policy, a banking crisis is historically the first evidence that something was breaking. As noted recently in “Not QE,” “Last week, amid a rash of bank...

Yesterday’s post reviewed the mixed signals for US recession risk based on CapitalSpectator.com’s proprietary business-cycle indexes. Today’s follow-up will take a deeper look...

An old saying cautions one to be careful of what one wishes for. Stock investors wishing for the Federal Reserve to pivot may want to rethink their logic and review the charts.The second largest U.S....

Despite warning signs flashing from several indicators, the U.S. economy is expected to report moderate growth in next month’s “advance” GDP report for the first quarter, based on a...

In 1992, judge Giovanni Falcone was killed by the Sicilian mafia.Falcone and his colleague Borsellino were at forefront of major investigations that uncovered much of the mafia’s business and...

Emergency Fed support for banks is at Great Financial Crisis proportions on some measures. Deposit flight from smaller banks remains a worry to boot. It should not be, but is. That said, there is...

No banking contagion news allows rates to jump back, but we doubt more than one Fed hike can be priced by the curve. This means the 2Y hovering around a 4% yield. Euro rates have more upside on a...