Market Overview

Are we back in 2011 or what?After the US debt ceiling drama earlier this year, we just witnessed a rating agency downgrading the US exactly like in 2011 – back then S&P, this time...

The gap narrowed in July between the expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI), and its trailing 10-year realized performance. Today’s revised long-run forecast for GMI, a global,...

Most of the major asset classes continued to rally in July, led by a surge in commodities based on a set of ETFs. US bonds, by contrast, remained the outlier, posting a third straight monthly...

Bank of Japan raises upper range of 10-year government bond yields to 1% Inflation remains high but not high enough for BOJ officials Meanwhile, Nikkei225 could still target new all-time highs Last...

Commodities have joined the party. After last week’s rally that lifted a broad measure of commodities, all the major asset classes are now posting gains for the year to date through...

This week will feature a ton of economic data that will likely reveal that the job market remains strong and the economy remains robust. Initial jobless claims have consistently decreased in the past...

While Washington continues a seemingly unbridled spending spree under the assumption “more spending” is better, debts and deficits matter. To better understand the impact of debt and...

The latest GDP data for the US economy presented a positive surprise, as it increased by 2.4% instead of the expected 1.8%. This suggests that the economy is improving and may not face a recession,...

Jerome Powell and his colleagues endlessly reassert their “higher for longer” plan for interest rates. They aim to weaken economic growth, bringing inflation back to pre-pandemic levels....

Tomorrow’s initial estimate of US economic activity by the government for the second quarter (scheduled for Thursday, July 27) is expected to report that a moderate expansion continues, based on...

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday to the highest since 2001. Despite hawkish warnings from Fed Chair Powell, the majority of traders are betting that this...

There’s an aspect of the higher interest rate structure we are now blessed/cursed with that hasn’t gotten as much airplay, but which is great news for dealer desks and also a good thing...

This is one of the most popular and yet misleading charts in macro.People like simple narratives: the Fed is ''pumping money'' into the ''system,'' and that's why equity markets go up. That’s...

This will be one of the busiest weeks of the year, with a flood of economic data, an FOMC meeting, an ECB meeting, and a BOJ meeting. On top of that, there will be earnings from 3 of the big seven.The...