Market Overview

In 2022, the vast majority of hedge funds struggled to generate returns for their investors. As stock-picking funds generated negative returns, global macro funds came out the big winners. However, in...

As if the 2020s haven’t been strange enough, the United States military recently shot down several UFOs. Equally bizarre as the possibility of aliens, some investment analysts are projecting an...

March is expected to be one of the most important months on Wall Street in recent years Market focus will be on the nonfarm payrolls report, inflation data, and the Fed’s highly anticipated...

There have been some positive surprises in economic data recently, and markets are busy trying to digest what this means for the Fed. Terminal rates are now priced at over 5% in the US and around 4%...

Over the last couple of decades, the assumption that inflation is mean-reverting to something approximating the Fed’s target level (or to where inflation expectations are supposedly –...

“Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance. And if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism.” – Jeremy...

What can the Fed do in a sticky inflation situation?January’s Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) index came in hot at 5.4% vs. the expected 5% inflation rate. The market is already in a frenzy...

This week will be full of economic data, but the big data will come on March 1 and 3, when the ISM manufacturing and services indexes are released respectively. The ISM manufacturing survey is...

The case for raising equity allocations when interest rates were close to zero was easy. After a year of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the calculus is more complicated.By some accounts,...

The Fed has recently released the hypothetical scenarios for its 2023 supervisory stress test. This test is conducted annually to show how the banks are likely to perform in a recessionary...

The economic rebound in the second half of 2022 looks challenged in early estimates for first quarter GDP, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.US output is on...

Economically speaking, bullish bets are mounting on a “no landing” scenario, which suggests the economy will avoid a recession entirely. As noted by Yahoo Finance last Friday: “The...

The February Fed minutes may reveal that rates have to go much higher.It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will still be full of market-moving data. The Fed minutes will be released on...

Recently I was shocked after speaking with five different investors on the phone. These investors have been involved in the markets for many years, and they trade their accounts. Surprisingly, not a...