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Silver futures are trading at $41.36, retreating from a sharp rally that topped at $42.29, directly testing the weekly Sell 2 ($42.26) and daily VC PMI resistance ($42.14). This rejection has shifted market momentum from overbought extremes back into mean-reversion probabilities. The VC PMI framework now projects a 90–95% probability of retracement toward the daily buy levels at $41.37 and $40.71, with deeper alignment at the weekly mean of $40.09.
From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, the current decline is carving into critical harmonics:
- 38.2% retracement: $40.90
- 50% retracement: $40.47
- 61.8% retracement: $40.04
These levels converge tightly with the daily Buy 2 ($40.71) and weekly Buy 1 ($39.31) pivots, forming a high-probability re-entry zone for long positioning if the correction extends further. The recent low of $38.67 remains a structural anchor and corresponds to the 100% retracement baseline.
Cycle analysis adds further dimension to this retracement window. The 30-day Gann cycle, measured from the August 2, 2025 pivot low at $37.67, projected a crest into the September 3–5 window. The surge into $42.29 aligned precisely with this projection, confirming that a short-term cycle high is in place. The next 30-day trough projects into October 3–5, 2025, creating a corrective bias into early October.
The 90-day quarterly cycle, anchored from the July 7, 2025 pivot low ($37.00), also matures into late September through October 5, reinforcing the importance of this time window. Beyond that, the 180-day cycle, measured from the April 7, 2025 low (~$34.50), projects a crest into October 7–15, 2025. This clustering of the 30-, 90-, and 180-day cycles makes late September through mid-October a critical convergence zone where sharp volatility and potential inflection are likely.
On a broader horizon, the 360-day master cycle, anchored to the September 28, 2024 low (~$26.00), projects a crest into September–October 2025, confirming that the current rally is part of a larger bullish arc. The corresponding trough projection extends into September 2026, suggesting that while the short-term structure favors correction, the longer-term outlook remains firmly bullish.
Square of 9 geometry also affirms this setup. The recent $42.29 high harmonizes with the $42.14 VC PMI pivot, creating a resonance that increases reversal probabilities. Rotational levels on the Square of 9 map downside harmonics at $40.50–$40.00, directly in sync with Fibonacci and VC PMI buy zones.
In conclusion, Silver has reached a time/price confluence marked by resistance, cycle crests, and harmonic projections. The path of least resistance favors mean reversion toward $40.71–$40.09 into early October before renewed accumulation. Short-term traders can lean into the retracement, while long-term participants may prepare to scale into positions at the lower buy zones.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: $42.14–$42.26
- Supports: $41.37 → $40.71 → $40.09 → $39.31
- Cycle Trough Windows: October 3–5, 2025 (30-day), late September–October 5, 2025 (90-day), October 7–15, 2025 (180-day)
- Master Cycle: Cresting now into Sept–Oct 2025, next trough due Sept 2026
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