TSX up after index logs fresh record high close
The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 97.81, after touching a session high of 97.89 and a low of 97.70. Price action remains subdued, trading beneath both the 15-day moving average (98.10) and the 20-day moving average (98.09), signalling continued weakness.
Key Technical Observations
- Bearish Bias Intact: Price has consistently failed to close above the short-term moving averages, keeping the downtrend structure in place.
- Range-Bound Price Action: The index has been oscillating between 97.50 support and 98.50 resistance, reflecting market indecision.
- RSI at 45.98: Momentum remains weak, leaning bearish but not yet in oversold territory, leaving scope for further downside.
- Volume Signals: Trading activity remains muted, reinforcing the consolidation theme.
Macro & Market Context
- Fed Policy Path: Ongoing speculation about rate cuts is dampening US dollar strength, as markets price in a softer Fed stance.
- Risk Sentiment: Global equities holding steady reduce safe-haven demand for the US dollar.
- Yield Spreads: US Treasury yields remain capped, further limiting upside in the US dollar index.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 98.50 (SMA cluster and horizontal barrier)
- Next Resistance: 100.00 (psychological level)
- Immediate Support: 97.50 (range floor)
- Breakdown Support: 96.50 (major swing low)
Bias: Bearish / Range-Bound
Unless the index can reclaim the 98.50 level decisively, the technical structure favours continued range trading with a downward tilt.
Patience may be key. Chasing inside the 97.50–98.50 band risks whipsaw. Short setups are more favourable near resistance at 98.50, while buyers may only gain conviction on a breakout above 99.00.
