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EUR/USD steady above 1.16 as markets await key US inflation data release. Fed rate cut odds remain above 80% after weak labor market figures last month. Trump extends China tariff relief, Alaska...
We expect a 0.4% month-on-month core CPI print in the US today, above the 0.3% consensus. That should offer the US dollar support, but we don’t think that will prompt markets to seriously price out a...
We think both US CPI inflation and the US fiscal deficit can come in higher than expected, with the latter most meaningful. Brewing trouble here for Treasuries. In the eurozone, the 2Y euro swap rate...
We expect the FX market to remain predominantly driven by data, and continue to treat expectations about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine with caution ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting. We expect...
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1643, attempting to stabilize after a recent rebound from the 1.1500–1.1520 support area. The pair has climbed back above both the 15-day and 20-day simple moving averages,...
A sharp reversal in EUR/CHF has been driven by a tariff hit to the franc and growing Fed rate cut bets favouring the euro, leaving the pair testing range highs. Tariff hike weighs on CHF...
Tariff pain is coming for Switzerland, but the bigger FX story remains the softening US outlook. EUR/USD is extending gains, while USD/CHF looks to have topped out for now. USD/CHF turning bearish...
'Tariff' may be the most beautiful word in Donald Trump's dictionary. And while tariffs will continue to dominate headlines for the rest of the year, let me introduce my economic term of the summer:...
President Trump hinted that Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and two others are leading the race for the next Fed Chair and might be announced soon after Governor Adriana Kugler’s early exit. We think the...
It’s been a big day in FX markets where a wholly weak US jobs report has pulled the rug from under Jerome Powell’s hawkish stoicism and stopped the US dollar’s rally in its tracks. It looks highly...
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