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Ed Yardeni

blog.yardeni.com
  • Analysis & Comment

Ed Yardeni's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Ed Yardeni's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 4

The Trump administration has announced plans to rescind a Biden-era rule that prohibited or capped the sale of advanced semiconductors outside of the US in an effort to keep the technology out of...
Here is how US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized his negotiations with Chinese trade officials this past weekend: "We had very productive talks and I believe that the venue, here in Lake...
This week is jam-packed with several April economic indicators and a couple of May regional business surveys. On balance, they should show that the soft data turned even softer, mostly in response to...
Is the Recession Over Already?
By Ed Yardeni - May 09, 2025
US Economy I: The Godot Recession Is Back During 2022, 2023, and 2024, most economists and investment strategists expected that the dramatic tightening of monetary policy would cause a recession....
The federal funds rate (FFR) futures market has consistently been predicting several cuts in the FFR since March 2023 (chart). The Fed did deliver three rate cuts totaling 100bps from September 18...
The latest correction in the S&P 500 was led by a short and shallow bear market in the Magnificent-7 stocks. Trump’s Tariff Turmoil clearly drove lots of the selling pressure. However, the stock...
Today, we are lowering our subjective odds of a recession from 45% to 35% following last week's news that China and the US might be moving toward starting trade negotiations. We also remain impressed...
Stock prices rose and bond yields edged lower yesterday on hopes that the Trump administration will soon start to deliver trade deals and the Fed might deliver cuts in the federal funds rate if the...
Only a few days ago, some stock-market-chart watchers warned that Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) set up a bearish Death Cross formation in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. That occurs when the 50-day...
Is the US Dollar as Weak as They Say?
By Ed Yardeni - Apr 23, 2025
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 8.8% since the start of this year (chart). That has sparked lots of angst, the worry being that this might be just the beginning of a secular decline in the dollar...