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Michael Lebowitz
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Michael Lebowitz's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Lebowitz's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 16
A complete archive of Michael Lebowitz's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 16
2020 Vs. 2023: Are Economists Making the Same Mistake?
By Michael Lebowitz - Nov 08, 2023
The following headline from a July 2020 CNBC article is stunning:
"Here’s why economists don’t expect trillions of dollars in economic stimulus to create inflation."
In hindsight, so many...
The $3 Trillion Delusion: Why Target Date Funds Fail Investors
By Michael Lebowitz - Nov 01, 2023
Morningstar estimates that as of 2022, there is nearly $3 trillion invested in target-date mutual funds. Per Morningstar:
Target date strategies remain the investment vehicle of choice for retirement...
Unavoidable Correction Looms as Stocks-Real Yields Divergence Widens
By Michael Lebowitz - Oct 25, 2023
Occasionally, we stumble upon a graph that deserves more than the paragraph or two we typically allot in the Commentary. The chart below, courtesy of SoFi and Bloomberg is one example. It compares...
Bond Market Noise Masks a Golden Buying Opportunity
By Michael Lebowitz - Oct 18, 2023
Treasury yield levels are overwhelmingly a function of inflation. However, in the short run, a plethora of influences can explain deviations between yields and inflation. These factors, which we call...
Yields Price in Higher for Longer, But Yellen Says Much Lower for Much Longer
By Michael Lebowitz - Oct 11, 2023
On October 5, 2023, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made a very telling statement about the future course of interest rates.
YELLEN SAYS DEBT SERVICE COSTS WILL BE 1% OF GDP FOR THE NEXT DECADE....
Fed May Be Closer to Bailing Out the US Economy, Stock Market Than It Lets On
By Michael Lebowitz - Oct 04, 2023
Based on some comments, it appears we scared a few people with A Crisis Is Coming.Our article warns, “A financial crisis will likely follow the Fed’s “higher for longer”...
Fed's Higher for Longer Campaign: When Will the Music Stop?
By Michael Lebowitz - Sep 27, 2023
We recently wrote about why it takes time for higher interest rates to inflict economic damage. We follow that up with a discussion of something equally worrying that also lags Fed rate...
High Bond Yields Keep Pricing in Economic Mirage
By Michael Lebowitz - Sep 20, 2023
In Our Elevator Pitch For Bonds, we asked:
“Is this time different?”
Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a...
Fed Cannot Keep Rates Higher for Longer Without Breaking Something
By Michael Lebowitz - Sep 13, 2023
Despite surging interest rates, there are few signs they are impeding economic activity or causing distress amongst borrowers. It may seem strange that higher rates are not proving troublesome for an...
Risk Free Government Debt: Fact or Fiction?
By Michael Lebowitz - Sep 06, 2023
Most investors believe that U.S. government debt is risk-free. Why shouldn’t they, every economic and financial textbook, media outlet, and bond guru say so?Did you know it used to be a fact...