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Francesco Pesole

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  • Analysis & Comment

Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 3

A four-day week in US markets due to Independence Day will offer plenty to judge whether EUR/USD can attempt a move to 1.20 in the near term. Focus will be on the Senate vote on the Big Beautiful...
Yesterday’s US data was a mixed bag, failing to unequivocally endorse the recent speculation on Fed rate cuts. Today, focus will be on the PCE, personal spending and more Fedspeak. EUR/USD has its...
The US dollar's bearish march has continued after the Middle East crisis brought scattered, short-lived support. EUR/USD has broken 1.170 and is setting its sights on 1.20. The recent short-term rate...
We expect the US dollar to become more sensitive to data in the near term, as markets seek a catalyst to double down on recent dovish Fed speculation. Employment figures may be subject to closer...
Markets seem to be trusting the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and the US dollar is back to testing its lows. Expect US data to play a bigger role from here, especially since Fed Chair Powell's...
Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, and markets had already started pricing out geopolitical risk yesterday as Iran’s retaliatory strikes against the US appeared measured in size. The US...
The US dollar is trading higher this morning after the US strikes on Iran. But the moves still look quite small in FX, which suggests lingering reluctance to unwind strategic USD shorts, as well as...
The US dollar has lost some momentum as oil prices corrected slightly lower, and markets still struggle to gauge the probability of the US joining the Middle East conflict. EUR/USD may stabilise now...
We expect a 25bp cut in Switzerland, and holds in the UK, Norway and Turkey. But the main driver for FX remains the Middle East situation and implications for oil prices. The US dollar is likely to...
Markets are now speculating on a US military intervention in Iran, and oil prices are jumping again. This has triggered a renewed safe-haven appeal for the US dollar, although this appears dependent...