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Investing.com - KeyBanc maintained its Sector Weight rating on Arcelor Mittal (NYSE:MT), currently trading near its 52-week high at $34.20, ahead of the steel producer’s second-quarter earnings report scheduled for July 31. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued based on its Fair Value calculation.
The investment firm raised its 2025 earnings per share estimate to $4.00 from $3.75, citing the recent appreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar, which positively impacts foreign exchange below the operating income line. The 2025 EBITDA forecast remains relatively unchanged. InvestingPro data shows that multiple analysts have revised their earnings upward for the upcoming period, with the company maintaining strong financial health metrics.
KeyBanc expects Arcelor Mittal to report higher quarter-over-quarter EBITDA in Q2 2025, driven by metal margin improvement in Europe through better pricing and contained costs. The firm anticipates relative stability across the rest of the company’s portfolio. With a market capitalization of $26.4 billion and last twelve months EBITDA of $5.6 billion, the company maintains a solid financial position despite challenging market conditions.
The analysis suggests Arcelor Mittal’s North American results, including Calvert operations, will face slight pressure quarter-over-quarter due to Trump’s Phase II S-232 tariffs affecting June performance and weakness in Canadian and Mexican spot prices. Brazilian operations may experience modest spread compression in Q2, likely offset by seasonal volume improvements.
KeyBanc’s 2025 earnings estimate excludes approximately $2.00 per share in non-cash gain associated with the Calvert acquisition in Q2 2025 and a roughly $0.25 per share headwind from the sale of operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina expected in Q3 2025.
In other recent news, ArcelorMittal’s earnings and revenue forecasts have been the focus of several analyst reports. Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) raised its price target for ArcelorMittal to EUR 31.00, maintaining a Buy rating, based on expectations of sequential improvement in Q2 results and better European steel spreads. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings upgraded ArcelorMittal’s credit rating to ’BBB/A-2’ from ’BBB-/A-3’, citing improved business performance and strategic growth projects. The company expects its adjusted EBITDA to improve toward $8 billion-$8.2 billion in 2025, driven by increased contributions from joint ventures like AM/NS India and AM/NS Calvert.
Goldman Sachs also upgraded ArcelorMittal’s stock to Buy, raising its price target to EUR 29.00. This upgrade reflects anticipated benefits from declining raw material costs and potential reductions in steel exports from China. ArcelorMittal’s strategic investments and expansions, such as the acquisition of a slab factory in Brazil and a new electric arc furnace at Calvert, are projected to contribute significantly to its EBITDA by 2027. The company remains focused on its decarbonization efforts and compliance with sustainability regulations. Despite potential macroeconomic uncertainties, analysts see a favorable outlook for ArcelorMittal’s financial health in the coming years.
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