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On Wednesday, H.C. Wainwright analyst Raghuram Selvaraju adjusted the price target for Assertio Therapeutics (NASDAQ:ASRT) to $3.50, down from the previous $4.00, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The revision followed Assertio’s announcement of its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results last week, which showed a slight overperformance in yearly revenue compared to H.C. Wainwright’s original projections. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading near its 52-week low of $0.68, with a market capitalization of approximately $68 million.
Assertio Holdings reported annual revenues of approximately $125 million, surpassing the forecasted $122.7 million. Despite this, the company’s revenue guidance for 2025 was set between $108 million and $123 million, which is below H.C. Wainwright’s initial expectation of $129.2 million. The analyst suggests that the conservative outlook for 2025 might be due to slower-than-anticipated sales growth for ROLVEDON and the continuing impact of generic competition on the INDOCIN franchise. InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 72.26% and a solid current ratio of 1.77, indicating strong operational efficiency despite challenges.
The firm recorded a full-year net loss in 2024 of $0.23 per share, which was more significant than the anticipated $0.15 per share. Looking ahead, H.C. Wainwright projects a net loss for Assertio in 2025 of $0.19 per share, a downward revision from the previously forecasted loss of $0.03 per share. This projection takes into account the expected sales of ROLVEDON, which are estimated to reach around $63.9 million for 2025, up from $60.1 million in 2024. Notably, InvestingPro data reveals the company maintains a strong free cash flow yield of 39%, suggesting potential for financial recovery. For deeper insights into Assertio’s financial health and detailed analysis, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.
Selvaraju remains optimistic about Assertio’s longer-term prospects, anticipating a return to profitability in the second half of 2026. The analyst’s estimates for 2026 include total revenue of $135.6 million and net earnings of $0.01 per share. The revised price target of $3.50 reflects a more cautious outlook on the revenue growth trajectory for ROLVEDON and the impact of intensified generic erosion on INDOCIN sales. The stock currently trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 0.93x, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation for long-term investors.
In other recent news, Assertio Holdings reported its Q4 2024 earnings, surpassing revenue expectations with $32.18 million against the projected $28.67 million. The company also posted a narrower-than-expected loss per share of $0.03, compared to the anticipated $0.04. Assertio’s Rolvadon sales increased to $15.4 million, contributing significantly to the company’s strong product sales performance. Despite facing generic competition, Assertio maintained its market share for Indocin, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on product innovation and expansion. However, the company’s gross margin decreased to 61% from 74% in Q3, partly due to higher excess inventory write-downs. For the full year, Assertio’s product sales totaled $120.8 million, with adjusted EBITDA falling short of guidance at $17.1 million. Looking ahead to 2025, Assertio provided guidance for net sales between $108 million and $123 million and adjusted EBITDA of $10 million to $19 million, while exploring potential strategic acquisitions. CEO Brendan O’Grady emphasized the company’s transformation strategy, indicating a focus on growth and potential acquisitions in the coming year.
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