On Wednesday, RBC Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: NYSE:BNS), increasing the price target to $74.00 from the previous $65.00 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. According to InvestingPro data, five analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period.
Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 13.6x with a market capitalization of $68.4 billion, the bank's shares have gained nearly 20% year-to-date. The adjustment reflects the analyst's expectation of good core earnings per share (EPS) growth for the bank in 2025, estimated at around 10%, despite a recent reduction in estimates. The revision of estimates comes after acknowledging that previous expectations might have been overly optimistic.
The analyst anticipates that the total provision for credit loss (PCL) ratio will stand at 0.53% in 2025, with impaired PCLs expected to continue alongside slight releases in performing PCLs. The target price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has been raised from 9.0x to 10.5x. This change is based on the belief that the risks associated with mortgage payment shocks and high unemployment have diminished, presenting a lower risk profile for Bank of Nova Scotia and Canadian banks in general.
InvestingPro analysis shows the bank has maintained dividend payments for 52 consecutive years, currently offering a substantial 5.7% yield, highlighting its financial stability through various economic cycles.
Bank of Nova Scotia has provided its own guidance for 2025, projecting a core EPS growth of 5-7% excluding contributions from KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), which remains unchanged. The bank also forecasts modest dividend growth, a higher tax rate of 23-24%, moderate non-interest expense growth, positive operating leverage, and a mid-50 basis points total PCL ratio.
In terms of performance, International Banking earnings for Bank of Nova Scotia were reported at $634 million. This figure represents a decrease of approximately 6% quarter-over-quarter but an increase of about 14% year-over-year. However, these earnings fell short of the $706 million estimate primarily due to revenues coming in lower than expected.
Summarizing the adjustments, the analyst stated, "Our price target moves to $74 (was $65). SP." This revised target reflects a more optimistic valuation of Bank of Nova Scotia's shares in light of the recent developments. InvestingPro data indicates the bank maintains a "GOOD" overall Financial Health score, with particularly strong momentum and relative value metrics. For deeper insights into BNS's valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which provides detailed analysis of the bank's financial position and future outlook.
In other recent news, Bank of Nova Scotia has been the subject of several analyst upgrades due to improving financial metrics and strategic initiatives. Barclays (LON:BARC) upgraded the bank's stock from Underweight to Equalweight, raising the price target to Cdn$81.00. This comes after the bank's strategic refresh, which led to a 5% year-over-year increase in revenues and a positive operating leverage.
Bank of Nova Scotia's recent investment in KEY is also expected to enhance the bank's North American corridor strategy. The bank reported robust growth in its third quarter, with adjusted earnings of $2.2 billion and a diluted EPS of $1.63. Moreover, the bank acquired a 14.9% interest in KeyCorp, a move expected to positively influence earnings per share and return on equity.
BofA Securities upgraded the bank's stock from Neutral to Buy, citing significant changes within the bank under CEO Scott Thomson's leadership. These changes are expected to result in an approximate 300 basis points improvement in return on equity (ROE) by 2027. TD Securities also upgraded the bank's stock from Hold to Buy, expecting the bank to deliver the strongest ROE improvement within its peer group over the next two years.
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