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On Wednesday, Benchmark analysts maintained their Hold rating on shares of Vipshop Holdings (NYSE:VIPS), following the company’s disclosure of its first-quarter results for 2025 and its full-year outlook. The online discount retailer reported a 5% year-over-year decline in revenue and a 4% decrease in active customers for the first quarter. Despite these challenges, Vipshop saw a resurgence in apparel sales and an 18% year-over-year increase in SVIP membership, which now accounts for more than half of the company’s online spending. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains excellent financial health with a "GREAT" overall score, supported by strong profitability metrics and robust cash management.
The management of Vipshop anticipates a recovery in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) but expects revenue to experience a modest decline due to macroeconomic factors and consumer headwinds. While the GMV trends for April and May are positive, the persistent uncertainty has led Benchmark to adjust its full-year 2025 revenue forecast for Vipshop to a 1.0% decrease from an initial estimate of a 0.2% increase. The stock currently trades at attractive multiples with a P/E ratio of 8.05 and appears undervalued based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis.
Despite the revenue and active customer downturns, Vipshop’s margins have remained stable. The company faces slight pressure on its gross profit margin of 23.36%, but the overall stability has been a positive note. The lack of clear near-term visibility, however, has resulted in Benchmark’s neutral stance on the stock. The company maintains strong profitability metrics, with a return on equity of 19% and healthy cash flows that adequately cover interest payments.
Vipshop’s management expressed cautious optimism that GMV will recover, yet they have prepared for potential revenue declines in the face of broader economic and consumer spending challenges. The company’s ability to grow its SVIP membership significantly suggests a strong customer loyalty base, which could be a key driver for future performance.
In conclusion, while Vipshop’s first-quarter performance presented a mixed picture, the company’s efforts to increase SVIP membership and the resurgence in apparel sales provide some positive aspects. Nonetheless, Benchmark’s revised forecast reflects a conservative outlook for Vipshop’s financial year 2025, given the ongoing uncertainties in the market.
In other recent news, Vipshop Holdings reported its first-quarter earnings, surpassing analyst expectations with adjusted earnings per share of RMB4.66, compared to the consensus of RMB4.36. However, the company’s revenue of RMB26.3 billion fell short of the projected RMB26.53 billion, which contributed to a decline in investor sentiment. Despite the earnings beat, Vipshop’s revenue guidance for the second quarter, ranging from RMB25.5 billion to RMB26.9 billion, was below current analyst estimates, with a midpoint of RMB26.2 billion.
Jefferies maintained its Buy rating for Vipshop, keeping the price target at $18.30, following the company’s earnings release. The firm’s analyst, Thomas Chong, noted that Vipshop’s total revenue matched consensus forecasts and highlighted that the company’s Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) remained flat year-over-year, exceeding Jefferies’ expectations. The non-GAAP operating profit aligned with consensus estimates, while non-GAAP earnings surpassed them.
Jefferies’ continued confidence in Vipshop’s stock is reflected in the reaffirmation of the Buy rating and price target, supported by the company’s performance in GMV and non-GAAP earnings. Vipshop’s management is expected to provide further insights during a scheduled conference call to discuss the quarterly results.
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