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On Wednesday, BofA Securities issued a new rating for Neumora Therapeutics shares, downgrading the company from Buy to Underperform. The firm also significantly reduced its price target for Neumora from $7.00 to just $1.00. The stock, currently trading at $0.91, has fallen 93% over the past six months and is hovering near its 52-week low. According to InvestingPro data, other analysts maintain more optimistic targets, ranging from $1.32 to $18. The downgrade comes after a reevaluation of the biotechnology firm’s prospects, particularly its lead program for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD).
Neumora Therapeutics, which trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker NMRA, has been focusing on developing its navacaprant (nava) program. However, following the disappointing results from the phase 3 KOASTAL-1 study, the company has announced plans to revise its site selection and medical monitoring protocols for its ongoing phase 3 MDD trials. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company maintains a strong financial position with more cash than debt and a healthy current ratio of 10.51, providing runway for these trials. Get access to 14+ additional ProTips and comprehensive analysis with an InvestingPro subscription. Neumora’s management has expressed confidence that these changes will better target the appropriate patients for enrollment and reduce the risk of placebo effects.
Despite these adjustments, BofA Securities remains skeptical about the potential success of the revised trials. Analysts at BofA Securities pointed out that patient selection is a common challenge across MDD studies and that it remains uncertain whether Neumora’s strategy will enhance the likelihood of achieving positive outcomes. The market appears to share this skepticism, as InvestingPro data shows the stock’s RSI indicates oversold conditions, while the company’s market capitalization has contracted to approximately $148 million. The firm’s analysts have taken a more conservative stance on the company’s lead program, citing uncertainties in the effectiveness of the new trial protocols.
Neumora has updated its guidance, now expecting to release top-line data for the KOASTAL-3 and KOASTAL-2 studies in the first and second quarters of 2026, respectively. This timeline is a delay from the previously anticipated release in the first half of 2025. With the extended timeline and the recent downgrade by BofA Securities, investors may be adjusting their expectations for Neumora’s future performance in the market.
In other recent news, Neumora Therapeutics reported fourth-quarter financial results, exceeding earnings expectations with an adjusted loss per share of -$0.37, compared to analyst estimates of -$0.62. The company announced a temporary pause of its KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 studies for navacaprant, aiming to resume in March 2025 after implementing several optimizations. Additionally, Neumora decided to discontinue its Phase II trial in bipolar depression to focus resources on the KOASTAL program. William Blair downgraded Neumora’s stock from Outperform to Market Perform, influenced by the discontinuation of Johnson & Johnson’s aticaprant program, which shares a similar mechanism with Neumora’s navacaprant. Stifel also downgraded Neumora from Buy to Hold, reducing the price target to $2.00, reflecting tempered expectations after recent industry developments. Conversely, H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating with an $18 target, citing confidence in Neumora’s differentiated pharmacology. Guggenheim reiterated its Buy rating with a $7 target, emphasizing upcoming data releases and potential advancements in Neumora’s pipeline. The financial outlook includes $307.6 million in cash and securities, expected to fund operations into mid-2026, with increased research and development expenses reflecting ongoing trial advancements.
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