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On Wednesday, BofA Securities analyst Steve Byrne increased the price target for Nutrien shares (NYSE: NYSE:NTR) to $63 from $60 while reaffirming a Buy rating on the stock. Byrne’s assessment highlights the continued rise in potash prices, particularly in Asia, and anticipates demand to remain robust in both the US and Brazil. The latter country is seeing an improvement in crop prices, which supports this outlook. This positive sentiment aligns with broader analyst consensus, as InvestingPro data shows 12 analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations upward, with price targets ranging from $55 to $70.
Despite a first-quarter result that caused concern among investors, Byrne notes that Nutrien’s Retail segment is gaining momentum again. He points out that earnings have a history of significant fluctuation between the first and second quarters. Byrne also mentions that Nutrien’s EBITDA is expected to grow at a mid-single-digit rate excluding mergers and acquisitions, which are beginning to factor into the company’s financial mix once more. The company’s financial health appears solid, with InvestingPro data showing a healthy current ratio of 1.22 and strong cash flow generation, supporting its seven-year streak of consecutive dividend increases.
The analyst believes that Nutrien’s performance warrants a higher valuation multiple. As a result, the sum-of-the-parts valuation for Nutrien has been adjusted to reflect a 10x multiple on the projected 2025 EBITDA, up from the previous 9x. This adjustment is in line with a more optimistic view of the company’s future earnings potential.
Concurrently, Byrne has adjusted the multiples for Nitrogen/Phosphate to 6x from 6.5x, aligning them with those of Nutrien’s peers. This recalibration is part of the rationale behind the revised price objective.
Steve Byrne’s commentary underscores his confidence in Nutrien’s stock, suggesting that even after a 27% year-to-date return, the company’s prospects remain favorable. The price target increase to $63 reflects this positive stance and suggests continued potential for Nutrien’s share value to grow.
In other recent news, Nutrien reported first-quarter earnings that missed analyst expectations, with adjusted earnings per share coming in at $0.11, significantly below the anticipated $0.36. Revenue also fell short, totaling $5.1 billion against the expected $5.2 billion. The company’s adjusted EBITDA declined by 19% year-over-year to $852 million, primarily due to lower potash prices in North America and weaker retail earnings. Despite these setbacks, Nutrien maintained its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting retail adjusted EBITDA of $1.65 billion to $1.85 billion and potash sales volumes between 13.6 million and 14.4 million tonnes.
In a separate development, RBC Capital Markets raised its price target for Nutrien to $65 from $60, maintaining an Outperform rating. The revision reflects RBC’s confidence in Nutrien’s operational execution and favorable market conditions in agriculture and fertilizer. RBC analysts noted the company’s effective strategies, including meeting its 2026 goals for the Retail segment and achieving cost savings ahead of schedule. The firm anticipates robust cash flows of approximately $2 billion annually, supporting dividends, share buybacks, and strategic acquisitions. RBC’s Andrew Wong expressed a positive outlook on Nutrien, considering it a solid defensive play in the agricultural sector despite broader economic uncertainties.
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