BofA raises Hindalco stock target to INR730; maintains buy

Published 21/05/2025, 06:10
BofA raises Hindalco stock target to INR730; maintains buy

On Wednesday, BofA Securities analyst Bharat Subramanian increased the price target on Hindalco Industries (NSE:HALC) Limited (HNDL:IN) to INR730.00, up from the previous INR725.00, while reaffirming a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment follows Hindalco’s fourth-quarter financial performance for fiscal year 2025, which aligned closely with BofA Securities’ projections.

Hindalco reported a 57% year-over-year increase in EBITDA (including Utkal) for the fourth quarter of FY25, reaching INR57 billion. This figure was in line with BofA Securities’ expectations, exceeding them by 5%. The aluminum EBITDA (including Utkal) surged to an all-time quarterly high of INR51 billion, marking a 79% rise compared to the same period last year and a 16% increase from the previous quarter. The growth was attributed to a favorable product mix in the downstream aluminum business, delayed benefits from higher alumina pricing, and a 1% quarter-over-quarter decrease in aluminum cost of production.

However, the copper EBITDA experienced a 21% year-over-year decline, settling at INR6.1 billion. This represented a 21% drop from the previous quarter but was slightly above BofA Securities’ estimates by 2%. The fall in copper EBITDA was primarily due to a sharp decrease in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs).

In light of these results, BofA Securities has revised its EBITDA forecasts for Hindalco for fiscal years 2026-2027, reducing them by 3-11%. This revision takes into account the lower commodity price forecasts recently issued by BofA Securities’ global commodities team. Despite the downward adjustment in EBITDA projections, the price objective was raised to INR730 per share based on a roll-forward to FY27.

Subramanian also updated Hindalco’s income rating to 8, which remains unchanged in terms of risk, but reflects a lower forecast dividend compared to the previous rating of 7, which indicated the same risk with a higher forecast dividend. The analyst’s commentary emphasized Hindalco’s favorable risk-reward balance, leading to the reiterated Buy rating.

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