Street Calls of the Week
Investing.com - BofA Securities lowered its price target on Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ:CBRL) to $42.00 from $48.00 on Thursday, while maintaining an Underperform rating on the restaurant chain’s stock. The company, currently trading at $49.59 with a market capitalization of $1.1 billion, has seen its stock decline nearly 5% in the past week, according to InvestingPro data.
The price target reduction follows Cracker Barrel’s sharply reduced EBITDA outlook for fiscal 2026, now projected at $150-190 million versus the previous consensus of $240 million. The company has also withdrawn its previous fiscal 2027 EBITDA guidance of $375-425 million. For context, InvestingPro data shows current EBITDA at $196.5 million, with the company maintaining an overall Financial Health score of "FAIR."
BofA Securities noted that while Cracker Barrel is focused on managing operating expenses and capital expenditures, with fiscal 2026 capital expenditure range of $135-150 million versus pre-release consensus of $194 million, the reduced outlook signals lower returns ahead.
The firm lowered its first-quarter fiscal 2026 EBITDA estimate to $27.2 million from $48.2 million, incorporating lower same-store sales growth of -3.0% versus +1.9% previously, consistent with approximately 5% price and the current traffic run rate of -8%.
BofA Securities’ fiscal 2026 EBITDA estimate was reduced to $164.0 million from $232.5 million, with EPS estimates dropping to $0.46 from $3.47, citing persistent traffic headwinds and competitive pressure as reasons for maintaining its Underperform rating. InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is currently undervalued, with additional insights available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which offers detailed analysis of the company’s financial health and growth prospects.
In other recent news, Cracker Barrel reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, slightly missing the earnings per share (EPS) expectations but surpassing revenue forecasts. The company posted an EPS of $0.74, just below the anticipated $0.76, while revenue reached $868 million, exceeding the expected $853.96 million. Despite the earnings miss, the revenue performance was better than projected. Truist Securities responded to these results by lowering its price target for Cracker Barrel from $62.00 to $58.00, although it maintained a Buy rating. The adjustment was based on the company’s weaker-than-expected guidance for fiscal year 2026. Additionally, Cracker Barrel’s same-store sales and adjusted EBITDA results for the fourth quarter exceeded expectations. These developments reflect a mixed performance with positive sales and revenue figures but cautious future guidance.
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