BTIG cuts VinFast stock rating to neutral post earnings

Published 24/04/2025, 21:56
BTIG cuts VinFast stock rating to neutral post earnings

On Thursday, BTIG analyst Greg Lewis (JO:LEWJ) changed the rating for VinFast Auto Ltd. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:VFS) from Buy to Neutral following the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report. The stock saw an increase of approximately 4% on the same day, in contrast to a roughly 2% rise in the S&P 500. VinFast reported fourth-quarter revenue of around $678 million, closely aligning with the consensus estimate of approximately $676 million and surpassing BTIG’s projection of about $561 million. However, the company’s adjusted EBITDA showed a loss of approximately $928 million, which was significantly higher than the anticipated consensus loss of about $229 million and BTIG’s estimate of a $205 million loss.

VinFast had previously announced its fourth-quarter 2024 deliveries on February 13th, revealing approximately 53.1k electric vehicles (EVs) delivered during the quarter. This marked an increase of about 143% sequentially and roughly 342% year-over-year, with the Vietnam market notably driving the volume growth. The full-year 2024 EV deliveries totaled approximately 97.4k, up around 192% from the previous year and exceeding the company’s guidance of 80k deliveries. While revenue growth remains strong at 64.5% over the last twelve months, InvestingPro analysis shows the company is quickly burning through cash, with negative free cash flow of $2.57 billion.

On April 11th, VinFast also preannounced its first-quarter 2025 deliveries, with approximately 35.1k EVs delivered in Vietnam. To meet management’s target of doubling deliveries from 2024, the company will need to increase its quarterly deliveries throughout the year, aiming for approximately 200k EVs delivered in 2025. The majority of these deliveries are expected to occur in Vietnam, with the company focusing on more affordable models priced below $25k as it solidifies its position as the EV market leader in the country.

BTIG’s downgrade to Neutral reflects a shift in investor focus towards profitability, especially as global EV pricing trends lower, potentially delaying the breakeven point for VinFast’s profitability. The analyst’s statement underscores the importance of profitability in the face of increasing EV deliveries and market leadership in Vietnam. According to InvestingPro data, analysts do not expect the company to be profitable this year, with forecasted EPS of -$1.03.[Discover the complete financial picture with InvestingPro’s comprehensive research report, featuring detailed analysis of VFS and 1,400+ other stocks, plus exclusive Fair Value calculations and expert insights.]

In other recent news, VinFast Auto Ltd. reported its first-quarter earnings, which did not meet analyst expectations. The company posted an adjusted loss per share of $0.54, falling short of the anticipated loss of $0.26. Despite this, VinFast’s revenue for the quarter reached $677.89 million, which, although below the consensus estimate of $716.23 million, marked a significant 270% increase from the previous year. This substantial revenue growth underscores VinFast’s expanding footprint in the electric vehicle sector. The company, which became publicly traded in August 2023 through a SPAC merger, is actively working to enhance its production capabilities and broaden its market reach. Investors and analysts will be observing VinFast’s performance in the upcoming quarters as it continues its global expansion efforts.

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