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On Friday, Canaccord Genuity analysts downgraded Ora Banda Mining Ltd (ASX:OBM) stock from Speculative Buy to Hold. The decision comes with a revised price target of A$1.20, down from A$1.25. The analysts cited lowered forecasts for the company’s production and financial performance as key reasons for the downgrade.
The analysts adjusted their forecast for the June quarter of 2025, predicting production of 24.6 thousand ounces, a 20% decrease, with all-in sustaining costs (AISCs) rising by 33% to A$3,130 per ounce. For the full fiscal year 2025, they expect production to reach 95 thousand ounces, a 6% reduction, with AISCs increasing by 9% to A$2,606 per ounce.
The firm also revised its forecast for the underlying free cash flow (FCF) for the June quarter of 2025 to negative A$1 million, down from a previous projection of A$34 million. For the full fiscal year 2025, the FCF estimate was lowered to A$54 million, representing a 39% decrease.
Despite the downgrade, the analysts noted that the extended downtime from plant upgrades is viewed as a temporary issue and not a structural concern. They remain optimistic about Ora Banda Mining’s future, forecasting production to increase to 150 thousand ounces at AISCs of A$1,932 per ounce in fiscal year 2026. This includes a projected 58% year-over-year production growth and a significant rise in FCF.
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