Cantor Fitzgerald sees growth in obesity drug market

On Tuesday, Cantor Fitzgerald provided insights into the current state of the obesity drug market following an investor call with a key opinion leader (KOL) in the field, Dr. Scott Kahan. According to InvestingPro data, the biotech sector remains highly competitive, with Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) maintaining its position as a prominent player with a market capitalization of $170 billion and strong revenue growth of 18.6% over the last twelve months. The KOL, who manages over 100 obese patients weekly at an academic center treating more than 1500 unique obesity patients, highlighted the increasing demand for obesity medications, although the growth rate may have slowed from the peak observed between 2022 and 2023.

The KOL pointed out that approximately 25% of the eligible patients at his center are currently being treated with either Zepbound (Lilly, LLY, NC) or Wegovy (Novo, NC). This suggests significant potential for increased market penetration. The market share within the GLP-1 drugs is dominated by Zepbound at 65%, with Wegovy at 35%, and Zepbound’s usage is on a steady rise. With Amgen’s upcoming earnings report scheduled for April 23, investors are closely monitoring the competitive landscape.

Despite the active management of side effects at the KOL’s center, more than half of the patients discontinue their obesity drug therapy within a year for various reasons, including insurance complications, side effects, or unmet weight loss expectations. The KOL noted that discontinuations are more prevalent with Wegovy compared to Zepbound. However, many patients return to treatment, with the approach to dosing depending on the length of their absence from therapy.

The discussion concluded that while there is considerable patient churn in the obesity drug market, this churn is consistent with recent publications and could be advantageous for new therapies. These upcoming treatments may capture market share not only from a large pool of treatment-naïve patients, given the low-single-digit percentage penetration in the U.S., but also from patients switching therapies. For deeper insights into the biotech sector and comprehensive analysis of companies like Amgen, explore InvestingPro, which offers exclusive research reports covering 1,400+ top stocks.

In other recent news, Amgen has announced a quarterly dividend of $2.38 per share for the second quarter of 2025, payable on June 6, 2025, to shareholders of record as of May 16, 2025. This financial move is part of Amgen’s ongoing strategy to strengthen its market position and maintain investor confidence. In addition, Amgen has unveiled results from the Phase 3 MINT trial of its drug UPLIZNA, showing sustained efficacy in treating generalized myasthenia gravis, with no new safety signals identified. The drug is already approved for other conditions and is under priority FDA review for additional uses.

Furthermore, TD Cowen has maintained its Buy rating for Amgen, with a $389 price target, following promising results from the Phase 3 HORIZON study of the atopic dermatitis treatment, ROCA. This study demonstrated an improved safety profile and efficacy, potentially expanding the market for this treatment. Amgen has also opened a new technology and innovation site in Hyderabad, India, with a $200 million investment plan through 2025, focusing on enhancing digital capabilities. Meanwhile, Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) Pharmaceuticals faced a setback as a U.S. appeals court upheld a decision denying a stay on sales of biosimilar versions of its drug Eylea, impacting its competitive stance in the biologics market.

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